Saturday, August 31, 2013

IRFC tax free bonds issue to open on Jan 27

The application for subscription of bonds should be for a minimum of 10 bonds and in multiples of 5 bonds thereafter. The issue will open for subscription on January 27, 2012, and close on February 10, 2012, or earlier (subject to the issue being open for a minimum period of 3 days), or extension by such period, upto a period of 30 days from the date of opening of the issue, as may be decided by the board of directors or by a duly constituted committee of the company.

The bonds shall carry a coupon rate of 8.00% p.a for 10 years (ISEC Comment: Series I) and 8.10% p.a for 15 years (ISEC Comment: Series II). An additional coupon rate of 0.15% p.a. and 0.20% p.a. on series 1 and series 2 respectively shall be available to Resident Indian Individuals, Hindu Undivided Families through the Karta and Non Resident Indians on repatriation as well as non-repatriation basis, applying for an amount aggregating upto and including Rs 5 lakh across all series in the tranche (available only to the original allottees). The bonds are proposed to be listed on NSE and BSE. 
 
The bonds have been rated �CRISIL AAA/Stable� by CRISIL, �[ICRA] AAA� by ICRA and �CARE AAA� by CARE, indicating highest degree of safety for timely servicing of financial obligations.

SBI Capital Markets Limited, A K Capital Services Limited and ICICI Securities Limited are the Lead Managers to the issue. Indian Bank shall be the Trustee to the issue.

The company intends to utilize the Issue proceeds for financing the acquisition of rolling stock and financing the capacity enhancement works in the Indian Railways.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Alcoa Beats on the Top Line - Analyst Blog

Traditionally known as the kicker-offer of earnings season each quarter, Alcoa (AA) has begun to get investors' juices flowing after the bell when the American aluminum giant posted earnings of 7 cents per share on revenues of $5.85 billion in the quarter. The initial Dow component to report met EPS estimates while coming out ahead on the top-line; the Zacks consensus expected only $5767 million in the quarter ended June 30.

It was an interesting quarter to predict for analysts: one the one hand, aluminum prices had fallen 10% from March through June, which caused Alcoa to lower overall capacity at its facilities by 11%. On the other hand, manufacturing that includes aluminum-based products -- most importantly airplanes and autos -- saw demand grow in the quarter. Immediately after the earnings announcement, AA shares spiked up to trade at over $8 per share.

That said, the stock had been trading near multi-year lows for weeks, and hasn't been up over $10 per share in over a year. With a Zacks Industry Rank of 250 out of 265, metals firms like Alcoa have been taking it on the chin in recent times, as Alcoa investors I'm sure are quite aware.

Further, with strong downward bias among earnings estimate revisions over the past 60 days -- 8 of the 12 analysts covering Alcoa have downwardly revised for the quarter, with 10 downward revisions for the fiscal year over that time period and no upward revisions -- have saddled Alcoa with a Zacks Rank #4. However, our long-term recommendation as of Monday's closing bell was Neutral.

Aluminum may not quite have the advanced degree of "Dr Copper," but it is still a forward indicator of economic strength and/or improvement. Thus, regardless of Alcoa's "old-school" Yellow Pages-style ticker symbol (AA Plumbers always got more calls than ZZ Plumbers did), the company does have a legitimate claim to kicking off the earnings season each quarter.

And, challenged though the company and its overall industry may be at present, a beat on t! he top-end has got to be seen as a positive development. At least the market's after-hours traders seem to think it is.

Amgen - Servier Ink Deal - Analyst Blog

Amgen (AMGN) recently entered into an agreement with Servier, a privately-run French research-based pharmaceutical company.

The collaboration, which focuses on cardiovascular diseases, will see Amgen making an upfront payment of $50 million. Amgen gained US commercial rights to Servier's ivabradine, a novel oral drug. Ivabradine is currently approved in the EU under the trade name, Procoralan, for chronic heart failure and stable angina in patients with elevated heart rates. It is approved in more than 100 other countries apart from the US.

Amgen also has an exclusive option for the US development and commercialization of another cardiovascular disease candidate in Servier's pipeline, S38844. S38844 is currently in phase II studies for the treatment of heart failure.

Meanwhile, Servier gained European commercialization rights to omecamtiv mecarbil, which is being developed by Amgen in collaboration with Cytokinetics, Incorporated (CYTK). Omecamtiv mecarbil, which is being evaluated for the treatment of heart failure, is currently in a phase II study in patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction, who are hospitalized with acute heart failure.

Amgen and Servier can exercise their options for S38844 and omecamtiv mecarbil, respectively, up to the completion of phase II studies.

Financial details regarding the S38844 and omecamtiv mecarbil part of the deal were not disclosed. As far as ivabradine is concerned, Servier will be entitled to milestone and royalty payments in addition to the above-mentioned $50 million upfront payment.

With the Servier deal, Amgen is looking to strengthen its cardiovascular pipeline. Amgen has been signing several deals this year. These include the expansion of the company's collaboration with Cytokinetics and the signing of agreements with Astellas (ALPMY) and Zhejiang Beta Pharma Co., Ltd. for Japan and China, respectively. Amgen was also in the news related to its offer to acquire Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX). Amgen! currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

At present, Cytokinetics looks well-positioned with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Bank Of America Brings The Growth

Nobody likes to be wrong, but I have to admit that I have significantly underestimated just how willing investors would be to pay up for Bank of America's (NYSE:BAC) above-average near-term growth, even if that growth is more a product of just how bad things were rather than how good things are getting. With the shares up more than 75% this year (and 20% in the last quarter), investors continue to reward BAC for capping its legal costs through settlements and launching expensive cost-cutting programs.

Although I still don't see much long-term value in these shares, I cannot ignore that Bank of America is going to post some of the best year-on-year growth numbers this year, and that that is Wall Street is craving from the banking sector today.

B Of A Delivers A Bottom-Line Beat And In-Line Operating Earnings, But Strong Growth
With operating revenue up 6% over last year but down 3% from the prior quarter, Bank of America delivered one of the weakest top lines of the sector, but Wall Street was prepared for it. Net interest income fell 1% from the first quarter, as net interest margin was flat with the prior quarter, but earning assets declined.

Fee income was weak, declining 4% on lower trading results, but expectations were already low going into the quarter. Bank of America's service charge and card income was up slightly on a sequential basis, while mortgage banking income declined about 3%. Bank of America was much weaker than Citigroup (NYSE:C) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) in terms of bond trading, but again that was expected going into the quarter.

SEE: Positive Start To Q2 Earnings Season

Bank of America continues to do legitimately praiseworthy work in cutting its expenses. Expenses were down about 7% sequentially, with core costs down 4% and reported personnel expenses (about half of non-interest expenses) down 14%. Bank of America's efficiency ratio is still very high relative to peers like JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB), but the company is hitting its targets and that is rebuilding management's credibility with the Street. While there are some very large differences in how different analysts calculate the bank's pre-provision profits, suffice it to say that the year-on-year improvement here was very significant (about 40% by my calculations), making Bank of America one of the best-looking growth stories in banking today.

Core Trends Favorable, But Not Overwhelmingly So
Among Bank of America's large bank peers, loan growth is hard to come by these days – Citi, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo basically had none of it on a sequential end-of-period basis. Bank of America, though, showed about 1% growth, with strong commercial (up 4%) offsetting weaker consumer (down 1%). Commercial real estate lending was particularly strong (up 8%), while residential mortgages declined 1%.

Bank of America also continues to clean up its credit. With non-performing loans down 14% and the charge-off ratio down almost 70bp from last year, Bank of America generated about $0.05 per share of loan loss reserve release income. The company's non-performing asset (NPA) ratio is still elevated (2.5%), but it is improving, and the bank is close to having all of its non-performing loans covered by reserves (currently at 95%).

SEE: Absent Higher Rates, Comerica Has Probably Gone Far Enough

The Bottom Line
Bank of America joined its peers in getting a boost from lower credit costs and seeing lower net interest income, but the bank didn't join in on on the "better than expected fee income" part. Even so, I don't expect investors to care. What investors and analysts want to see today is ongoing progress with expense reduction and lower provisioning expenses, and that's what the company is delivering, as well as strong reported year-on-year pre-provision earnings growth.

While I do praise the company's efforts to cut costs and cap legal expenses, I still have questions about the long-term profitability of the business. I still don't see a reason to lift my long-term target of 8% for return on equity, and my excess returns model suggests a fair value of about $12 on that basis. Likewise, factoring Bank of America's return on tangible assets and net common equity (return on equity minus the cost of equity), a 1.1x multiple of tangible book value ($14.65/share) seems like a fair price today. So while I've learned my lesson with respect to the Street's love of near-term cost-driven banking growth stories, I still don't see enough long-term value here to want to buy the shares with my own money.

Disclosure - As of this writing, the author owns shares of JPMorgan


Bear of the Day: Amazon (AMZN) - Bear of the Day

Investors love Amazon.com (AMZN) but analysts sent it into time out after it recently missed on second quarter earnings. This Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) saw a loss in the quarter leaving many to ask: when will Amazon make money?

Amazon.com has its hands in many businesses. It is one of the Internet's largest retailers, a media company with publishing and video content, and a technology company with tablets, e-readers and cloud, among other things.

The company really can't be labeled in one category anymore. It is certainly more than just a book seller.

Big Second Quarter Miss

The company reported second quarter earnings on July 25 and missed the Zacks Consensus by 6 cents. It was expected to make $0.04 but posted a net loss of $7 million, or $0.02 per share.

Revenue rose 22% to $15.7 billion on strength in North America, especially in shoes and apparel and health and beauty. Customers are using the Prime program to buy items they once might have purchased at the local drugstore. Europe, however, remains weak.

Analysts Slash Estimates

Amazon provided mixed third quarter guidance but that didn't stop analysts from cutting full year guidance.If you look at the price and consensus chart over the last few years, you can see that the analysts always start out each year very optimistic about Amazon's prospects. They clearly think that THIS is the year Amazon will fulfill its earnings potential.

But as the year goes on, the estimates are slashed. That's why the consensus falls, instead of climbs, every year.

2013 is now following this same pattern, mainly due to concerns about increased spending on technology and infrastructure.

The 2013 Zacks Consensus has fallen 43 cents since the earnings miss to $0.92 from $1.35 as 21 out of 26 estimates have been lowered.

When that many estimates are cut by that big of an amount, the company is li! kely to fall to a Zacks #5 (Strong Sell), as we are seeing with Amazon now.

Growth Is Still There

However, the analysts still see strong growth in 2013. Earnings are expected to jump 227%.

In the last few years, it has been investing in its infrastructure, including a big increase in its distribution network. The company recently announced it was hiring an additional 5,000 workers at various fulfillment distribution centers across the United States.

But with shares soaring to new highs in recent sessions, Amazon now has a nose bleed level P/E of 330. And questions still remain as to when all the investment will finally pay off in the form of earnings.

The Zacks Rank is a short term recommendation of 1 to 3 months. Short term investors might be better served to check out other Internet retailers such as Stamps.com (STMP) and Petmed Express (PETS) which are both Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stocks. For those interested in the content business, Netflix (NFLX) is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

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Tracey Ryniec is the Value Stock Strategist for Zacks.com. She is also the Editor of the Turnaround Trader and Value Investor services. You can follow her on twitter at @TraceyRyniec.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

JPMorgan Top Stock Picker with Equities Out of Lockstep

Mike McGregor/Bloomberg Markets
Howard Chen, left, and Craig Siegenthaler correctly predicted that AllianceBernstein stock would rebound.

Investors had declared the stock of AllianceBernstein Holding LP (AB) a loser. From Jan. 1, 2010, to Aug. 23, 2012, it had declined 43 percent compared with a 33 percent gain for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Nevertheless, on that day, Credit Suisse Group AG analyst Craig Siegenthaler lifted his rating on the New York-based money manager's shares to a buy.

"Many investors had left it for dead," Siegenthaler says. "It was a tough stock to even bring up in front of investors. Underneath the low valuation, the company was really in a transformational period."

Since his call, AllianceBernstein's shares have outperformed the S&P 500 by almost threefold, with the stock returning 73 percent for the year ended on Aug. 14. In recommending the shares to Credit Suisse customers, Siegenthaler said that the company was cutting expenses and that fixed-income sales were improving, Bloomberg Markets magazine will report in its September issue.

More from the September issue of Bloomberg Markets:

SPECIAL REPORT: Terrorism and Tungsten | Slideshow FAMILY OFFICES: World's Richest | Graphic QATAR: Money, Gas and Clout PHILANTHROPY: One Woman's Mission BILLIONAIRES: Charity, Russian Style | Slideshow MALAYSIA: Najib's Grand Plan

Siegenthaler's calls on stocks such as AllianceBernstein helped make him and his Credit Suisse partner, Howard Chen, the top U.S. analysts of brokerage and asset management firms in 2012, according to a ranking of stock analysts by consulting firm Greenwich Associates and Bloomberg Markets.

He currently has buy recommendations on private-equity firm Fortress Investment Group LLC (FIG) and Zions Bancorporation. (ZION)

Analysts Surveyed

To compile the ranking, Stamford, Connecticut-based Greenwich Associates surveyed 945 buy-side analysts at 190 investment management firms, mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds and insurers from December to March. The analysts were asked to name the Wall Street research teams they considered their most important sources of advice on investments.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)'s research unit, under Noelle Grainger, the bank's head of equity research in the Americas, scored the largest number of highly ranked analysts, making it the No. 1 firm in U.S. equities research for the fourth consecutive year, according to Greenwich Associates. Bank of America Corp.'s BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research unit was No. 2, followed by Morgan Stanley. (MS)

Research directors and analysts say the big news in their field is that the era of correlation -- when stocks move up or down in unison in reaction to macroeconomic events -- is finally ending. Weakening correlation signals that investors are less obsessed with big issues like Europe's debt crisis, the U.S. fiscal deficit and China's growth trajectory. They're looking instead at more stock-specific investment drivers such as earnings, technology innovations and market share, Grainger says.

Adding Value

"In 2012, people started to be willing to put a little more risk on the table," Grainger says. "It was a year where analysts could add more value based on their industry and company expertise."

It was also a year in which the tide lifted a lot of boats. More tha! n 300 of the stocks in the S&P 500 index saw returns in excess of 10 percent in 2012, including reinvested dividends. As the index surged, driven by four straight years of profit growth and three rounds of Federal Reserve stimulus, companies' stocks began to break away from the pack and move up or down on their merits.

"From the stock pickers' side, two things stuck out in the past year," says Brett Hodess, the head of Americas equity research at BofA Merrill Lynch. "It was still very important to look at macro events in order to see which sectors would be most favored. Then you had to figure out who the winners and losers would be. That was the way to outperform."

Calculating Correlation

The correlation among S&P 500 companies fell to an average of 0.59 last year, according to data compiled by Westport, Connecticut-based research firm Birinyi Associates Inc. A reading of 1.0 indicates they're all moving in the same direction by the same amount. In 2011, stocks had moved in unison by the most since at least 1980, reaching a record correlation of 0.86 in October as prices tumbled, according to Birinyi.

Heather Bellini, a software analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) who ranked second in her industry, started coverage of Salesforce.com (CRM) Inc. in July 2011, putting the largest maker of customer-management software on Goldman's buy list. She saw cash flow rising on the continued success of Salesforce's Sales Cloud -- its core product -- as well as newer offerings such as the Service Cloud customer-support software. The shares fell after her July 12, 2011, buy recommendation and then gained 66 percent in 2012. The stock is up 6.3 perpercent this year as Aug. 14.

Bellini now has buy recommendations on Facebook Inc. (FB) and Oracle Corp. (ORCL)

Reassessing Private Equity

Credit Suisse (CSGN)'s Chen took a new look at publicly listed private-equity firms, including Apollo Global Management LLC, Blackstone Group LP (BX) and Carlyle Gro! up LP. (C! G) Investors are still struggling to properly value them, he says.

Private-equity firms lock up investor money for as long as a decade while they buy companies, overhaul them and, if all goes well, sell them for a profit. The firms, which use debt to finance the deals, typically charge an annual management fee of 1.5 percent to 2 percent and keep 20 percent of profits from investments.

Valuing the firms had traditionally consisted of a sum-of-the-parts analysis -- marking the value of investments every quarter, according to Chen. He argued in a February 2012 report to change that metric and judge the firms based on their longer-term cash earnings generated from management fees and profits from investments.

'False Precision'

"To me, sum of the parts has a false sense of precision," Chen says. "It doesn't get to the heart of how these companies create value and why they've been so successful."

Apollo and Blackstone were the best positioned in 2012 to deliver the biggest growth in cash earnings, Chen says. He maintained his buy calls on both firms throughout the year. From Chen's Feb. 7, 2012, note calling for a new valuation methodology, Apollo returned 129 percent as of yesterday's close and Blackstone, 46.6 percent.

Chen today has buy recommendations on IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (ICE) and asset manager State Street Corp. (STT)

The top analyst of large-cap banks in the Greenwich Associates/Bloomberg Markets ranking is Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley. In one of her best calls, she saw bad news for JPMorgan as good news for investors.

'Double Down'

On May 18, 2012, eight days after the biggest U.S. bank by assets announced a $2 billion trading loss in the firm's London chief investment office, Graseck published a note telling investors to "double down" on the shares, which had plunged 27 percent from their March 2012 peak. The trading losses were attributed to Bruno Iksil, known in the market as the London Whale, an! d ultimat! ely totaled at least $6.2 billion.

"We pounded the table post-Whale," Graseck says. "The view was that management had the skills to be able to work with the Street and get the portfolio risks reduced." JPMorgan stock returned 67.6 percent from her May report to yesterday's close.

Another Graseck winner was Atlanta-based SunTrust Banks (STI) Inc., which she upgraded to a buy on July 2, 2012, after digging into data that showed a recovery in the housing market in the Southeastern U.S. SunTrust is the biggest lender in Georgia and has branches in Florida, Maryland and North Carolina. She also saw that SunTrust would benefit from a new wave of refinancing following the extension of the federal Home Affordable Refinance Program, which allows Americans with little home equity to refinance. Shares of SunTrust rallied 42.9 percent from her call to Aug. 14.

Trade Routes

Graseck's Morgan Stanley colleague Bill Greene ranks No. 1 in transportation. One of his best calls was a sell in March 2010 on Expeditors International (EXPD) of Washington Inc., which assists companies in shipping goods across international borders. Most of Expeditors' business is on trade routes across the Pacific Ocean, especially between China and the U.S. Greene predicted that the company's growth would stumble as freight flows shifted to emerging markets -- between China and Vietnam, for example. In addition, companies were increasingly near-shoring, or relocating factories and offices closer to headquarters, resulting in fewer international shipments.

"All of these factors were head winds to growth," Greene says.

Starting in the fourth quarter of 2011, Expeditors' profits missed analysts' estimates for six straight quarters, sending shares down 2 percent in 2012. They've returned 3.2 percent this year as of yesterday.

One-by-One

While judging stocks one by one has become easier, what hasn't changed since the financial crisis is investors' demand for research o! n global ! investment themes. Analysts now collaborate across industries and regions in order to produce comprehensive reports that identify worldwide trends.

"Companies are competing across traditional lines," Goldman software analyst Bellini says. "One thing that's important for us is to make sure we break down the silos that are set up due to the way the industries are covered. This lets us present portfolio managers with research that's more unified and consistent."

Bellini teamed up with William Shope Jr., Goldman's technology hardware analyst, who's tied for third in his group in the Greenwich Associates/Bloomberg Markets survey, and Michael Bang, a Seoul-based analyst at the firm, on a December report that noted how Apple Inc. (AAPL), Samsung Electronics Co. (005930) and Facebook would all benefit from changing trends in how consumers use smartphones and tablets.

Defying the Crisis

Stephen Penwell, Morgan Stanley's director of North American equity research, says his firm did a report that featured companies whose profit margins had risen even as global economic events such as the European debt crisis had intensified. They included discount chain Dollar General Corp. (DG), Dunkin' Brands Group Inc. (DNKN) and Web services firm Rackspace Hosting Inc. (RAX)

"Good old-fashioned stock picking is coming back in vogue," Penwell says. "Clients are beginning to make more bets and bigger bets."

If investors are looking to make a big bet on AllianceBernstein, Craig Siegenthaler says they're late to the party. On July 3, he concluded the shares would no longer outperform relative to other asset managers and downgraded them to a hold.

How We Crunched the Numbers

To create rankings of the top U.S. analysts by industry, Bloomberg Rankings worked with Greenwich Associates, a consultant to financial services firms. From December through March, Greenwich Associates interviewed buy-side analysts who use Wall Street research, asking each responden! t to list! the 10 firms they regarded as the most important sources of information on the industries they cover.

About 60 percent of these discussions were in person; the balance were conducted online. Greenwich Associates interviewed a total of 945 analysts at 190 institutions, including banks, insurance companies, investment management firms, mutual funds, pension funds and hedge funds.

These accounts represent an estimated total of $4.7 billion in commissions, or an average of almost $30 million in commissions per buy-side institution. Participating institutions were placed in seven tiers based on the commissions they generated. The responses of top-tier accounts received the greatest weight.

Greenwich Associates received responses for 58 industries, and we included in the ranking the 34 industries that had at least 45 responses. For the final ranking, Bloomberg Markets researched and added the names of the sell-side analyst or analysts with prime responsibility for tracking each industry.

Commission Weighted

Greenwich Associates listed as many as five winning firms for some industries and as few as two for others. The number of firms selected was a function of their commission-weighted share of the institutional vote. Statistical ties occurred when the difference between weighted shares was small. When the difference between the second- and third-ranked firms was substantial, no No. 3 firm was named.

Friday, August 23, 2013

UBS to Pay SEC $50M for Misrepresenting CDO

UBS on Tuesday agreed to pay nearly $50 million to settle charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission that a brokerage unit violated securities laws while structuring and marketing a collateralized debt obligation (CDO) and by failing to disclose that it retained millions of dollars in upfront cash it received in the course of acquiring collateral for the CDO.

The SEC’s investigation found that UBS Securities, a brokerage unit of the Zurich-based parent bank, received $23.6 million in upfront payments in the process of acquiring credit default swaps (CDS) as collateral. Rather than transferring this cash to the CDO when the collateral was transferred, the SEC says that UBS retained the full amount of upfront payments in addition to its disclosed fee of $10.8 million.

George Canellos, co-director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement, said in a statement that “UBS kept $23.6 million that under the terms of the deal should have gone to the CDO for the benefit of its investors.” In doing so, “UBS misrepresented the nature of the CDO’s collateral and rendered false the disclosures about how that collateral was acquired.”

Without admitting or denying the SEC’s findings, UBS agreed to pay disgorgement of the $23.6 million in upfront payments as well as the disclosed fee of approximately $10.8 million plus prejudgment interest of approximately $9.7 million and a penalty of $5.7 million.

Said the SEC: “Not only did UBS go on to market the deal using materials that omitted any reference to its retention of the upfront payments, but the materials inaccurately represented that the CDO had to acquire all collateral at either fair market value or the price it was acquired by UBS.”

This representation, the SEC says, was inaccurate because the CDO did not receive the $23.6 million in upfront cash kept by UBS as an additional undisclosed fee, and the collateral was not acquired at fair market value.

According to the SEC’s order instituting settled administrative proceedings, UBS structured the CDO known as ACA ABS 2007-2 in mid-2007.

ACA Management—the same company that managed the failed CDO for Goldman Sachs—was collateral manager for the UBS structured CDO. The collateral for the CDO consisted primarily of CDS on subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS).

The CDS essentially operated as a kind of insurance against certain defaults in the underlying RMBS, the SEC says. As the “insurer,” the CDO received monthly premiums from the CDS collateral. The premiums were in turn used to make required payments to bondholders of the CDO.

According to the SEC’s order, ACA solicited bids on the CDS collateral, with those offering the highest yields becoming the winning bidders. Typically, the collateral manager would seek to achieve the highest yield in the form of periodic interest payments, known as a running spread. However, for this particular CDO, UBS and ACA agreed that ACA would seek bids for yield in two components: a fixed running spread plus upfront cash payments in the form of “points” like those on a mortgage. The running spread plus the upfront points combined to equal the yield on the CDS.

According to the SEC’s order, as a result of the bidding process, ACA ended up acquiring CDS having upfront payments totaling $23.6 million. These payments were made to UBS as part of the process of acquiring collateral for the CDO. From the outset, UBS employees working on the CDO intended for UBS to retain the upfront cash.

Early in the structuring, the SEC says that the head of the U.S. CDO group at UBS stated, “Let’s see how much money we can draw out of the deal.” Similarly, the manager of UBS’s CDO syndicate book viewed the CDO as an “arbitrage opportunity” for UBS to make trading gains when selling the assets into the CDO.

Sunday, August 18, 2013

AGCO Unveils Fuse Technologies - Analyst Blog

AGCO Corporation (AGCO) announced a new global strategy to deal with every aspect of precision farming technology. The new technology strategy dubbed Fuse Technologies will help the customers of AGCO to improve productivity and profitability by optimizing their operations.

Precision farming or satellite farming is a farm management system which monitors intra-field variations with the help of new technologies like satellite imagery, information technology and geospatial tools.

The Fuse Technologies portfolio will include AGCO's existing telematics and data management systems and auto guidance solutions. The technology offers precision agriculture solutions to customers through seamless integration and connectivity across all farm assets.

In addition, Fuse Technologies will encompass AGCO's core products facilitating integration with technology suppliers. Professional growers will benefit from future developments of these core precision farming technologies. The technology will allow connection with current suppliers and Farm Management Information System (FMIS) software, resulting in lower input costs, less labor and higher yields.

This unique technology will provide global access to farmers through extensive dealer networks. It will also help them to gain proficiency through innovative product training in customer call center.

Duluth, Ga.-based AGCO is a global leader focused on the design, manufacture and distribution of agricultural machinery. AGCO supports more productive farming through a full line of tractors, combines, hay tools, sprayers, forage equipment, tillage, implements, grain storage and protein production systems, as well as related replacement parts.

AGCO, which belongs to the machinery and farming industry along with Kubota Corporation (KUB), Lindsay Corp (LNN) and Alamo Group, Inc. (ALG), remains committed to its plans of expanding business in international markets.

The company expects elevated agricultural commodity prices in! 2013 which will drive farm income. However, soft demand for grain storage and protein production equipment, start-up issues at the Marktoberdorf plant and increased engineering expenses will weigh on the near-term results.

AGCO currently retains a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).



Saturday, August 17, 2013

3M Okay On Growth, But Margins A Growing Worry

For a company that trades largely on the basis of being a defensive stock with strong margins, 3M's (NYSE:MMM) repeated margin weakness in the second quarter is starting to become a cause for concern. Moreover, while 3M's growth doesn't look too bad compared to many of its peers, the relative comps are likely to get less favorable and 3M isn't really built to produce growth spurts. Much as I like and respect this company, the shares too look overpriced today and I'm considering selling my own shares.

Not A Very Good Quarter By Most Measures
3M gets a lot of credit for its strong margins, its defensive characteristics, and its strong global footprint. All of that may be true on balance, but it's hard to say that performance isn't eroding.

Revenue was up 3% this quarter, or a little more than 2% on an organic basis, with about three-quarters of that growth fueled by volume gains. Three of the five business units reported organic growth (with Industrial and Consumer at 3% and Health Care at 6%), while Safety/Graphics and Electronics/Energy both declined 2%.

SEE: 5 Earnings Season Investing Tips

Margins once again missed expectations. Gross margin declined 40bp, and segment profits declined 3% (missing expectations by 2%). Consolidated operating income declined 2% and the operating margin fell almost one point. Although some of the underperformance can be pinned on costs related to acquisitions, this is the second straight quarter where 3M has logged a four-cent miss at the operating line. At some point, this has to start impugning 3M's reputation as an all-weather margin play among the industrial conglomerates.

Can 3M Keep Up With Growth?
Across the range of conglomerates that have reported so far, 3M comes off looking okay from a growth perspective. The company's 2.3% organic growth rate was in the same general range as, if not better than, comparables like Danaher (NYSE:DHR), General Electric (NYSE:GE), Honeywell (NYSE:HON), and Illinois Tool Works (NYSE: ITW).

The problem, though, is that 3M's relative comps are going to get more challenging as the quarters roll on, as the company's sales never declined as much as some of these peers. Although 3M can certainly benefit from improving global industrial demand and a recovery in electronics (though that business continues to decline, as do the electronics-oriented businesses at Danaher, ITW, and DuPont (NYSE:DD)), it's just not a business geared for a quick turnaround.

SEE: 3M, Reshine Join To Boost NMC Usage

3M is built around serial innovation and efficiency, and that is a formula for slow and steady performance. While 3M has the financial wherewithal to buy growth, and there are a lot of businesses out there that would seem to fit, that really isn't the company's style. In fact, many of 3M's deals seem built more around synergy and complementary lines of business than growth. So although about half of 3M's business could be called "early cycle", I wouldn't expect a big bump in the growth rate when the global economy starts to improve again.

Margins Need To Get Better
I think improved margin leverage is very important to 3M's valuation multiples, as that's often one of the first points mentioned in any bullish thesis on these shares. While improved factory utilization and M&A dilution explain the year-on-year decline, I wouldn't necessarily bank on the price/cost tailwinds remaining in place for the company. My worry, then, is that 3M may be maxed out on what it can achieve in terms of incremental margin leverage and that's usually bad news for these stocks.

The Bottom Line
I'm still looking for 3M to generate long-term revenue growth around 4% and free cash flow growth of more than 6%, but the aforementioned margin issues have me feeling a little less confident about that latter estimate. In any case, those growth rates only work out to a fair value in the $102 to $110 range, and that's obviously below the current stock price.

Although 3M is not alone in looking overvalued on a discounted cash flow basis, and the stock's ROE-adjusted multiples don't look as expensive, I'm less enthusiastic about these shares. While I have generally expected to hold 3M shares for a very long time, I have to admit that this would be a stock I'd look to sell if I needed to raise money for a more promising new position.

Disclosure – At the time of writing, the author owns shares of 3M.

Friday, August 16, 2013

Xilinx Remains Neutral - Analyst Blog

On Jul 5, 2013, we retained our Neutral recommendation on semiconductor chip-maker, Xilinx Inc. (XLNX). On Apr 24, Xilinx posted mixed first quarter 2013 results. Revenues declined on a year-over-year basis and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. But the quarter's adjusted earnings of 47 cents were better than the year-ago level and also ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Xilinx delivered a positive earnings surprise in the last quarter, with an average beat of 5.95% for the trailing four quarters. Currently, Xilinx has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Why a Neutral Stance?

Xilinx currently dominates the Programmable Logic Device (PLD) market with its 28 nanometer (nm) field programmable gate array (FPGA) products. The company has introduced a broad array of 28nm FPGA chips during fiscal 2013. The new product launches led Xilinx to generate better-than-expected revenues from the FPGA portfolio in the last quarter.

Management expects 28-nm FPGA revenues to grow 150.0% year over year in fiscal 2014 based on continued ASIC and ASSP displacement and higher usage of FPGAs in next generation wireline & wireless networks and data centers. LTE deployments in the communications market will drive FPGA demand leading to continued momentum for Xilinx.

Xilinx' leadership could get affected while transitioning to lower nodes. Though archrival Altera Corp. remained an underdog in the 28-nm transition, the trend could reverse in the case of 20-nm or 14-nm. Both the companies are planning to launch their 20-nm products shortly.

Notably, Altera has started working on developing 14-nm FPGAs leveraging Intel Corp.'s tri-gate transistor technology. In response, Xilinx also announced its 16-nm plans in association with its foundry partner Taiwan Semiconductor Company.

Estimate Revisions

Over the last 30 days, estimates for 2013 and 2014 remained unchanged. Hence, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2013 and 2014 also remains unchanged at $2.00 and $2.30 per shar! e, respectively.

The lack of estimate revisions indicates that there are no drivers to move the stock in either direction.

Other Stocks to Consider

Other stocks in the technology sector that are currently performing well include Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ), NetApp Inc. (NTAP) and Micron Technology Inc. (MU). All these companies carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Why this is right time to invest in equity mutual funds

Below is the verbatim transcript of Navlakhi's interview with CNBC-TV18.

Q: We have seen foreign investors bringing in flows into our equity markets and yet recent data shows that mutual funds have been net sellers. What is the reason they are facing this kind of redemption pressure? Logically, wouldn't this be a good time to be buying?

A: Mutual fund investors have got tired so they have been waiting on the sidelines with their investments, which have been in the red and when they start seeing it getting into the black, they decide to bailout. Our view has been quite the opposite ever since the time in September that the government decided to hike diesel prices by 10 percent and somewhere around that time when the index was 17,300 level, one has not seen 17,000 since that time.

It has crossed 18,000 and then hovered between 18,000 and 20,000 from that time on and essentially investors must remember few macro and fundamental reasons why they should invest in equities.

In the short run of course there are sentimental reasons and that is why there is some selling pressure, but long-term investors, I can see a whole bunch of positives in the market as follow:

(1) we are at the top of the interest rate cycle, we are seeing that interest rates are going to come downwards and whenever that happens it is typically very good for corporate

(2) valuations have now dropped below the long-term average so it is not like dirt cheap, but it is certainly a time when one should consider investing in Indian equities

(3) internationally also we are getting supported on two fronts; one, commodity prices have fallen sharply and as a result of that one has seen the impact on oil prices etc so the subsidies that Indian government had on petrol and diesel, apart from their increasing prices on one side the subsidies have dropped because international prices have also dropped and simultaneously one is seeing that the quantitative easing by US and Japan is continuing so one is seeing flows continuing to come into the market.

Therefore, whole bunch of reasons why I would recommend that people do look at equity markets.

Indian growth numbers, gross domestic product (GDP) numbers were not very good but if compared with the international markets, they are relatively much better and the fact of the matter is that in the long run it is profits of companies and the growth in profits of companies, which will dictate the type of returns one make in the equity markets.

So, I would strongly recommend people to look at equities as an asset class, consult financial advisor and look at asset allocations. Therefore, I am not saying go overboard and pump in all money today, but certainly look at asset allocation and the amount that need to add to equity. One way of reducing the risk is to enter in a staggered manner.

So I can see whole bunch of reasons and when one look back at September to today on macro front, one do not know what sort of reforms or what sort of issues -- there have been issues on political front, corruption front, but over the years India has proved far more resilient and I do see scope for investing in equities.

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Thursday, August 15, 2013

5 Best Oil Stocks To Own For 2014

If the EPA won't stop fracking, then maybe the Justice Department will step in and do the job for them.�

Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI  ) and Halliburton (NYSE: HAL  ) , two of the three biggest companies involved in providing services for hydraulic fracturing, announced last week they received�civil investigative demands, or CIDs, from Justice regarding a probe into alleged "anticompetitive practices involving pressure-pumping services performed on oil and gas wells."

CIDs require recipients to produce�documents, respond to interrogatories, or provide sworn deposition testimony and are used�by the government before litigation has actually commenced. The area Justice is investigating, pressure pumping, is the main step in the fracking process and involves injecting water, chemicals, and other fluids under high pressure into a well to fracture the rock formations trapping the oil and gas deposits.�

5 Best Oil Stocks To Own For 2014: Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (BWP)

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP is a limited partnership company. The Company owns and operates three interstate natural gas pipeline systems including integrated storage facilities. Its business is conducted by its primary subsidiary, Boardwalk Pipelines, LP (Boardwalk Pipelines) and its subsidiaries, Gulf Crossing Pipeline Company LLC (Gulf Crossing), Gulf South Pipeline Company, LP (Gulf South) and Texas Gas Transmission, LLC (Texas Gas) (together, the operating subsidiaries), which consist of integrated natural gas pipeline and storage systems. During the year ended December 31, 2011, it formed Boardwalk Midstream, LP (Midstream), and its operating subsidiary, Boardwalk Field Services, LLC (Field Services), which is engaged in the natural gas gathering and processing business. In December 2011, Boardwalk HP Storage Company, LLC (HP Storage), a joint venture between Boardwalk Pipelines and Boardwalk Pipelines Holding Corp. (BPHC) acquired Petal Gas Storage, L.L.C. (Petal), Hattiesburg Gas Storage Company (Hattiesburg). In December 2011, it acquired a 20% equity interest in HP Storage.

The Company�� pipeline systems originate in the Gulf Coast region, Oklahoma and Arkansas and extend north and east to the midwestern states of Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. It serves a mix of customers, including producers, local distribution companies (LDCs), marketers, electric power generators, direct industrial users and interstate and intrastate pipelines. The Company provides a portion of its pipeline transportation and storage services, through firm contracts, under which the Company�� customers pay monthly capacity reservation charges. Other charges are based on actual utilization of the capacity under firm contracts and contracts for interruptible services. During 2011, approximately 82% of its revenues were derived from capacity reservation charges under firm contracts; approximately 14% of its revenues were derived from charges-based on actual utilization under firm contr! acts, and approximately 4% of its revenues were derived from interruptible transportation, interruptible storage, parking and lending (PAL) and other services. Its expansion projects include South Texas Eagle Ford Expansionand Marcellus Gathering System and HP Storage.

Pipeline and Storage Systems

The Company�� operating subsidiaries own and operate approximately 14,200 miles of pipelines, directly serving customers in twelve states and indirectly serving customers throughout the northeastern and southeastern United States through numerous interconnections with unaffiliated pipelines. In 2011, its pipeline systems transported approximately 2.7 trillion cubic feet of gas. Average daily throughput on its pipeline systems during 2011 was approximately 7.3 billion cubic feet. Its natural gas storage facilities are comprised of eleven underground storage fields located in four states with aggregate working gas capacity of approximately 167.0 billion cubic feet. the Company operates the assets of HP Storage on behalf of the joint venture.

The principal sources of supply for our pipeline systems are regional supply hubs and market centers located in the Gulf Coast region, including offshore Louisiana, the Perryville, Louisiana area, the Henry Hub in Louisiana and the Carthage, Texas area. Its pipelines in the Carthage, Texas area provide access to natural gas supplies from the Bossier Sands, Barnett Shale, Haynesville Shale and other gas producing regions in eastern Texas and northern Louisiana. The Henry Hub serves as the designated delivery point for natural gas futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Its pipeline systems also have access to unconventional mid-continent supplies, such as the Woodford Shale in southeastern Oklahoma and the Fayetteville Shale in Arkansas. The Company also accesses the Eagle Ford Shale in southern Texas; wellhead supplies in northern and southern Louisiana and Mississippi; and Canadian natural gas through an unaffil! iated pip! eline interconnect at Whitesville, Kentucky.

Gulf Crossing

The Company�� Gulf Crossing pipeline system originates near Sherman, Texas, and proceeds to the Perryville, Louisiana area. The market areas are in the Midwest, Northeast, Southeast and Florida through interconnections with Gulf South, Texas Gas and unaffiliated pipelines.

Gulf South

The Company�� Gulf South pipeline system is located along the Gulf Coast in the states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. The on-system markets directly served by the Gulf South system are generally located in eastern Texas, Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. These markets include LDCs and municipalities located across the system, including New Orleans, Louisiana; Jackson, Mississippi; Mobile, Alabama; and Pensacola, Florida, and other end-users located across the system, including the Baton Rouge to New Orleans industrial corridor and Lake Charles, Louisiana. Gulf South also has indirect access to off-system markets through numerous interconnections with unaffiliated interstate and intrastate pipelines and storage facilities. These pipeline interconnections provide access to markets throughout the northeastern and southeastern United States.

Gulf South has two natural gas storage facilities. The gas storage facility located in Bistineau, Louisiana, has approximately 78 billion cubic feet of working gas storage capacity from which Gulf South offers firm and interruptible storage service, including no-notice service. Gulf South�� Jackson, Mississippi, gas storage facility has approximately five billion cubic feet of working gas storage capacity, which is used for operational purposes and is not offered for sale to the market.

Texas Gas

The Company�� Texas Gas pipeline system originates in Louisiana, East Texas and Arkansas and runs north and east through Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, K! entucky, ! Indiana, and into Ohio, with smaller diameter lines extending into Illinois. Texas Gas directly serves LDCs, municipalities and power generators in its market area, which encompasses eight states in the South and Midwest and includes the Memphis, Tennessee; Louisville, Kentucky; Cincinnati and Dayton, Ohio, and Evansville and Indianapolis, Indiana metropolitan areas. Texas Gas also has indirect market access to the Northeast through interconnections with unaffiliated pipelines. Texas Gas owns nine natural gas storage fields, of which it owns the majority of the working and base gas. Texas Gas uses this gas to meet the operational requirements of its transportation and storage customers and the requirements of its no-notice service customers.

Field Services

In 2011, the Company formed its Field Services subsidiary and transferred to it approximately 100 miles of gathering and transmission pipeline. In 2012, the Company transferred to Field Services an additional 240 miles of pipeline and two compressor stations. Field Services is developing gathering and processing capabilities in south Texas and Pennsylvania.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Michael Brush]

    As for Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (NYSE:BWP), it operates natural gas pipelines in the U.S. transporting about 10% of the nation's natural gas on an annual basis. Although it generates just 6% of Loews' overall net income, it does so on a consistent basis. Personally, I like the natural gas tie-in. Lastly, it owns 100% of privately operated HighMount Exploration and Production, a Texas-based company that produces natural gas, LNG and oil in Texas and Oklahoma. In 2012, as a result of lower natural gas prices, it's had to take large impairment charges on its natural gas revenue. I'd expect its situation to improve in 2013. Loews has increased its book value per share by approximately 9.5% on an annualized basis over the past five years. Owning its stock instead of the energy-related holdings directly allows you to benefit from its other holdings at the same time. 

5 Best Oil Stocks To Own For 2014: ATP Oil And Gas Corp (AOB)

ATP Oil & Gas Corporation, incorporated in 1991, is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas properties. As of December 31, 2011, the Company had estimated net proved reserves of 118.9 Million barrels of crude oil equivalent (MMBoe), of which approximately 75.9 MMboe (64%) were in the Gulf of Mexico and 42.9 MMBoe (36%) were in the North Sea. The reserves consisted of 78.6 Million barrels (MMBbls) of oil (66%) and 241.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas (34%). Its proved reserves in the deepwater area of the Gulf of Mexico account for 62% of the Company�� total proved reserves and its proved reserves on the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf account for 2% of its total proved reserves. During the year ended December 31, 2011, the Company acquired three licenses in the Mediterranean Sea covering potential natural gas resources in the deepwater off the coast of Israel (East Mediterranean). On August 17, 2012, ATP Oil And Gas Corp filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

The Company�� natural gas reserves are split between the Gulf of Mexico (57%) and the North Sea (43%). Of its total proved reserves, 8.3 MMBoe (7%) were producing, 19.0 MMBoe (16%) were developed and not producing and 91.6 MMBoe (77%) were undeveloped. The Company�� average working interest in its properties at December 31, 2011, was approximately 81%. The Company operates 92% of its platforms. At December 31, 2011, in the Gulf of Mexico, it owned leasehold and other interests in 38 offshore blocks and 49 wells, including 23 subsea wells. The Company operates 43 (88%) of these wells, including 100% of the subsea wells. In the North Sea, it also had interests in 13 blocks and two Company-operated subsea wells. As of March 15, 2011, the Company owned an interest in 13 platforms, including two floating production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, the ATP Titan at its Telemark Hub and the ATP Innovator at its Gomez Hub. It operates the ATP Innovator and the ATP Titan.

Top 10 China Companies To Own In Right Now: Caiterra International Energy Corp (CTI.V)

CaiTerra International Energy Corporation (Caiterra), formerly Cyterra Capital Corp., is a Canada-based company is engaged in the exploration and development of oil and gas properties. The Company�� project includes Faust, Amadou and Lac La Biche. On March 9, 2012, the Company completed its qualifying transaction with West Pacific Petroleum Inc. (WPP), pursuant to which the Company acquired all of WPP�� working interests in certain petroleum and natural gas leases and an oil sand lease in the Lac La Biche and Amadou Projects located in Alberta, Canada and certain other assets (the QT Oil and Gas Properties) from West Pacific Petroleum Inc. (WPP). On December 17, 2012 the Company acquired the Faust Property located just north of the Swan Hills oil field and south of the Town of Slave Lake.

5 Best Oil Stocks To Own For 2014: Carnival Corporation(CCL)

Carnival Corporation operates as a cruise and vacation company. It provides cruises to various vacation destinations with a portfolio of cruise brands comprising Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, and Seabourn in North America; and AIDA Cruises, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Ibero Cruises, and P&O Cruises in Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company also involves in operation of hotels, as well as offers tour and transportation services. It operates approximately 98 ships, as well as owns and operates 15 hotels or lodges that include 3,420 guest rooms; 395 motorcoaches; and 20 domed rail cars. The company sells its cruises through travel agents, including wholesalers and tour operators. Carnival Corporation was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Geoff Gannon] ns how the cruise business really works. But all of the companies in the industry (CCL, RCL and NCL) freely discuss the economics of their business in great detail. They break out costs before and after fuel. They give you per-passenger prices of how much newly built ships cost. They give you lots and lots of details. They explain how they price their product (the way airlines do) and so on. There is an extreme level of detailed explanation of the business in the various conference calls, 10-Ks, etc.

    A great source for this information is going back to the time the company went public or at least finding the S-1 of a competitor. When a company goes public it often gives much more detail into product economics, etc., than it will later on when it reports annual results.

    That is also a good place to learn about market share, competitors, etc. It is very important to know who a company's customers are. And to think about the circumstances under which they make purchases.

    In many businesses, you will find at least two kinds of "customers." You will have the middlemen (distributors) and the end user (consumer). For Hanes Brands (HBI) the middlemen are Wal-Mart, Target, the dollar stores, etc.

    And the end user (consumer) is really the female head of the household. This is complicated somewhat in almost all situations by the possibility ��as we have with Hanes ��where the user is not always the purchaser. Plenty of underwear purchases are not made by the person who will use the product. But they are obviously an influencer of the purchase decision.

    The strongest example of this is kids' toys. Kids do not buy toys. Parents buy toys. But kids influence the parents.

    For many companies, sales are first made to distributors, then go from distributors to retailers, then from retailers to households. And even within the household the buyer may not be the user.

    It is helpful to make these distinctions. And not to be overly technical about the way accounting defines! customers, etc.

    For example, a key group to consider with Western Union is agents. The way Western Union's statements are prepared, however, treat agents simply as an expense line with their revenue belonging to Western Union. The reality is more complicated. Western Union's financial statements appear to have a ton of variable costs in them. But this is really all just agent expense. The business is in reality a very fixed-cost business. Once an agent is in place an additional customer of that agent adds to the bottom line of both the agent and Western Union to a very great extent relative to the fees that customer pays. In other words, marginal revenue turns into marginal profit very easily.

    When considering investing in a company like Western Union, you have to think about both agents and customers. It would be wrong to focus only on customers. The agents are a key part of the business. In many ways, they are the best chance of having a competitive advantage. So it is Western Union's job to attract both agents and customers.

    That is the kind of thing Warren Buffett would intuitively understand and focus on. However, it is not something that appears in any way on the financial statements. It is often easiest to see these important competitive points when you have 10-Ks from more than one company in the same industry in front of you.

    A lot of times people have emailed me saying I referenced information that must be from other sources ��not SEC reports, etc. But that's rarely true. Often, I am referencing information that can be inferred after you have read all the 10-Ks (and S-1s where available) of all the public companies in the industry.

    For example, Copart (CPRT) is one of two companies in its industry that are public. The other company is part of a kind of conglomerate car sales company. That other company, KAR Auction Services (KAR), was much more explicit in detailing the competitive position of Copart and Insurance Auto Auctions. It even gave market share! data.
    This is common. Often one company will choose not to give names or put percentages on certain competitive facts. The other company will do so. And even when that is not the case, the two companies will often make statements that ��when taking together ��can give you rough indications of certain realities that neither company entirely intended to provide.

    The same is true for certain suppliers and customers. Although this is complicated by size. Very large customers of small companies are not good sources of information. But smaller companies often provide better insights into the larger suppliers, customers, etc., they deal with. That's because ��due to their small size ��more information is material and is explained in detail.

    I have found situations where one company simply says who the customer is that they are supplying. While the other company explains what product that supply goes into, the purchase amount, whether it is an exclusive arrangement, etc.

    So it is always important to ��at a minimum ��read the 10-Ks, 14As, and (where available) S-1s of every public company in the industry. This will give you a lot of insight into the competitive situation. Sometimes it is helpful to also look at customers and suppliers. However, this is not true of very large customers and suppliers because they will not discuss the specific area you are interested in.

    For example, Honeywell is a large customer of George Risk. It would do me no good to study Honeywell to learn about George Risk. Honeywell is a huge company. What they buy from George Risk is irrelevant to their shareholders. So they do not discuss it.

    An exception to this is where the product sold is going into a huge "generational" type project. Examples include defense, aerospace, video game consoles, operating systems, etc. This can be very helpful with suppliers way down the chain. For exam

5 Best Oil Stocks To Own For 2014: Linn Energy LLC (LINE)

Linn Energy, LLC (LINN Energy) is an independent oil and natural gas company. The Company�� properties are located in the United States, primarily in the Mid-Continent, the Permian Basin, Michigan, California and the Williston Basin. Mid-Continent Deep includes the Texas Panhandle Deep Granite Wash formation and deep formations in Oklahoma and Kansas. Mid-Continent Shallow includes the Texas Panhandle Brown Dolomite formation and shallow formations in Oklahoma, Louisiana and Illinois. Permian Basin includes areas in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Michigan includes the Antrim Shale formation in the northern part of the state. California includes the Brea Olinda Field of the Los Angeles Basin. Williston Basin includes the Bakken formation in North Dakota. On December 15, 2011, the Company acquired certain oil and natural gas properties located primarily in the Granite Wash of Texas and Oklahoma from Plains Exploration & Production Company (Plains).

On November 1, 2011, and November 18, 2011, it completed two acquisitions of certain oil and natural gas properties located in the Permian Basin. On June 1, 2011, it acquired certain oil and natural gas properties in the Cleveland play, located in the Texas Panhandle, from Panther Energy Company, LLC and Red Willow Mid-Continent, LLC (collectively Panther). On May 2, 2011, and May 11, 2011, it completed two acquisitions of certain oil and natural gas properties located in the Williston Basin. On April 1, 2011, and April 5, 2011, the Company completed two acquisitions of certain oil and natural gas properties located in the Permian Basin. On March 31, 2011, it acquired certain oil and natural gas properties located in the Williston Basin from an affiliate of Concho Resources Inc. (Concho). During the year ended December 31, 2011, the Company completed other smaller acquisitions of oil and natural gas properties located in its various operating regions. As of December 31, 2011, the Company operated 7,759 or 69% of its 11,230 gross productiv! e wells.

Mid-Continent Deep

The Mid-Continent Deep region includes properties in the Deep Granite Wash formation in the Texas Panhandle, which produces at depths ranging from 10,000 feet to 16,000 feet, as well as properties in Oklahoma and Kansas, which produce at depths of more than 8,000 feet. Mid-Continent Deep proved reserves represented approximately 47% of total proved reserves, as of December 31, 2011, of which 49% were classified as proved developed reserves. The Company owns and operates a network of natural gas gathering systems consisting of approximately 285 miles of pipeline and associated compression and metering facilities that connect to numerous sales outlets in the Texas Panhandle.

Mid-Continent Shallow

The Mid-Continent Shallow region includes properties producing from the Brown Dolomite formation in the Texas Panhandle, which produces at depths of approximately 3,200 feet, as well as properties in Oklahoma, Louisiana and Illinois, which produce at depths of less than 8,000 feet. Mid-Continent Shallow proved reserves represented approximately 20% of total proved reserves, as of December 31, 2011, of which 70% were classified as proved developed reserves. The Company owns and operates a network of natural gas gathering systems consisting of approximately 665 miles of pipeline and associated compression and metering facilities that connect to numerous sales outlets in the Texas Panhandle.

Permian Basin

The Permian Basin is an oil and natural gas basins in the United States. The Company�� properties are located in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico and produce at depths ranging from 2,000 feet to 12,000 feet. Permian Basin proved reserves represented approximately 16% of total proved reserves, as of December 31, 2011, of which 56% were classified as proved developed reserves.

Michigan

The Michigan region includes properties producing from the Antrim Shale formation in the northern ! part of t! he state, which produces at depths ranging from 600 feet to 2,200 feet. Michigan proved reserves represented approximately 9% of total proved reserves, as of December 31, 2011, of which 90% were classified as proved developed reserves.

California

The California region consists of the Brea Olinda Field of the Los Angeles Basin. California proved reserves represented approximately 6% of total proved reserves, as of December 31, 2011, of which 93% were classified as proved developed reserves.

Williston Basin

The Williston Basin is one of the premier oil basins in the United States. The Company�� properties are located in North Dakota and produce at depths ranging from 9,000 feet to 12,000 feet. Williston Basin proved reserves represented approximately 2% of total proved reserves, as of December 31, 2011, of which 48% were classified as proved developed reserves.

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Can Ford Take Out the Competition?

2012_ford_f-150_crew-cab-pickup_harley-davidson_fbdg_oem_1_500

With shares of Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) trading around $15, is the stock an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our Cheat Sheet investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Ford is a producer of cars and trucks. The company also engages in other businesses, such as financing vehicles. Ford operates in two sectors: automotive and financial services. Through its sectors, Ford provides a wide range of vehicles, vehicle parts and services to a multitude of consumers and companies worldwide. The company's products saw declining demand in the past several years as gasoline prices took a major toll on pockets. Ford Motor is now revolutionizing its vehicles in order to compete on the world stage. Look for Ford to fuel a recovery in the American automobile industry and provide highly demanded vehicles, parts, and services.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Mixed

Ford stock has struggled to make any positive progress in the past few years. The stock is seeing a good pop this year and is now consolidating, so it may need time before it makes its next move. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages: 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow). As seen in the daily price chart below, Ford is trading slightly above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

F

Taking a look at the implied volatility and implied volatility skew levels of Ford may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Ford Motor Options

31.62%

86%

85%

Investors or traders are buying a significant amount of call and put options contracts compared to the past 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

July Options

Flat

Average

August Options

Flat

Average

As of Tuesday, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Additionally, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Ford’s stock. What do those quarterly earnings and  year-over-year revenue growth figures for Ford look like and, more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

14.29%

-88.17%

0.00%

-55.93%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

10.37%

5.34%

-2.65%

-6.52%

Earnings Reaction

-0.22%

-4.64%

8.59%

-0.99%

Ford has seen mixed earnings and revenue figures in the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been slightly disappointed with Ford’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Ford stock done relative to its peers Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE:TM), General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM), Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA), and the sector?

Ford Motor

Toyota Motor

General Motors

Tesla Motors

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

15.98%

25.81%

10.37%

202.33%

17.88%

Ford has been an average performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Ford is a well-established vehicle products and services producer, distributed in a multitude of countries across the globe. The stock is currently consolidating gains after a bullish run, so it may need some time before the company makes its next move. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have been mixed, which has resulted in slightly disappointed investors. Relative to its peers and sector, Ford has been an average year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what Ford does this coming quarter.

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Can United Airlines Find Success with Social Media?

United Airlines, which is owned by United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:UAL), is one of many companies hoping to successfully integrate social media in order to increase profits. Like many other large companies, they are learning the ways of social media via trial by fire.

While many companies could choose to ignore the impact of social media on their bottom lines until very recently, it is becoming increasingly imperative that companies integrate sites such as Twitter, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), and YouTube, which is owned by Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), to their standard methods of marketing in order to be successful. Gregory Karp of the Chicago Tribune explains. Jacqueline Anderson , director of social media and text analytics at J.D. Power, explains, ”We’re at the point now where you need to have a social strategy that covers both aspects (service and marketing), because otherwise you’re going to be way behind the curve.”

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The airline industry, as a whole, performs poorly on the social media front despite the successes of some companies such as JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ:JBLU) and Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV). Despite being the largest airline, United ranks last among major U.S. carriers when it comes to Twitter followers, coming in at 240,000 followers compared to the 1.5 million and 1.7 million followers of Southwest and JetBlue, respectively. That’s a lot of ground to make up for not recognizing the importance of social media early, especially with public relations disasters such as “Guitar-gate,” which may have resulted in the loss of $180 million according to Economist.

As a result, United has spearheaded an aggressive campaign to catch up with the success of its competitors on the social media front. Increasing their social media staff from two to twenty, including twelve reservation agents, the increased staff is tasked with monitoring media activity around the clock. While the two-way communication of social media is incredibly important to consumers, United CEO Jeff Smisek also sees the importance of that same communication on their end. ”We can sometimes spot issues very quickly that we otherwise wouldn’t even know about,” he said. “We’re a big company and sometimes things will happen that we’re not as aware of as we should be. And social media helps (us) to pick up on that,” he told the Chicago Tribune.

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For the past six months, United has accumulated more Twitter users than any other major U.S. airline, according to data by Unmetric. While some of that growth is due to their comparatively smaller base number than their competitors, it seems to be a very positive sign for a company that seemed too far behind not so long ago. On United’s Twitter handle, which they use for both marketing and customer support, they include trivia questions and monthly discussions with United officials on a variety of topics. On YouTube, they recently revealed their new employee uniforms.

As the importance of social media on big business continues to evolve, United seems to show that a newfound focus on changing their marketing to include social media can still yield success. While it’s no longer an option to ignore social media when it comes to a successful business, it’s not too late to start.

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Friday, August 9, 2013

The Claritas Investment Certificate: A New Foundation-Level Program From The CFA ...

The CFA Institute now offers a third program, apart from the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation – the gold standard for professionals involved in investment decision-making – and the Certificate in Investment Performance Measurement (CIPM). This new program, the Claritas Investment Certificate, was launched on May 20, 2013, at the 66th CFA Institute Annual Conference in Singapore. The program was developed by the CFA Institute over a two-year period as part of a global call to action for industry participants to play a role in addressing the overall lack of trust in financial services, following the worldwide financial crisis of 2008-09. The CFA Institute expects that the knowledge acquired by candidates who have obtained the Claritas Investment Certificate will help to shape a more trustworthy financial industry by setting a new standard for education and ethics that is applicable internationally.

What is the Claritas Investment Certificate program?
The Claritas Investment Certificate program is aimed at anyone working in the financial services sector. It is a foundation level program with the objective of providing a clear understanding of investment industry basics, and one's role and responsibilities as a financial services professional.

Syllabus
The program is an online, self-study course comprising 21 chapters organized into the following seven modules; (approximate exam weightings are shown in parentheses):
Module 1 – Industry Overview (5%) Module 2 – Ethics and Regulation (10%) Module 3 – Tools and Inputs (20%) Module 4 – Investment Instruments (20%) Module 5 – Industry Structure (20%) Module 6 – Industry Controls (20%) Module 7 – Serving Client's Needs (5%) Time Commitment
The Claritas program is expected to take about 80 to 100 hours of study over a three to six month period.

Fees
Individual registration costs US$685, and includes access to all study materials, the exam registration fee, and one exam sitting. The cost can be lowered by as much as US$200 if you work for a large firm that supports the program and register through your employer. Employers and institutions can buy Claritas bulk registration vouchers at a discounted price as follows: 25-99 vouchers US$635 each; 100-249 vouchers US$585 each; and 250 or more vouchers US$485 each.

Study Materials:
An eBook that contains the complete Claritas Course of Study and forms the foundation of all exam questions. It can be accessed online, and can be downloaded to as many as four devices (two computers and two mobile devices). The eBook is also available in print through Amazon.com (two volumes at a cost of US$45 each). A study planner – candidates gain access to a personalized planner that can help them assess the time commitment required per chapter, based on the number of days remaining until the scheduled exam date. Chapter review questions and practice questions. A mock exam – this has the same length and topic weightings as the actual Claritas exam. Examination
After registering for the Claritas examination, a candidate must schedule an exam appointment and write the exam within 180 days. The Claritas examination is computer-based and consists of 120 multiple-choice questions to be completed in 120 minutes. The exam is administered at many Pearson VUE test centers around the world. Exam candidates are asked to allow up to 2½ hours at the test center, which includes time to check-in, go through the exam tutorial, review and agree to the Claritas Candidate Pledge, and complete the exam.

How does the Claritas program differ from the CFA?
The Claritas Investment Certificate differs substantially from the CFA in a number of ways, including:
Program scope: The CFA program is widely considered to be the investment profession's most rigorous credentialing program and the "gold standard" for investment management. The Claritas certificate is a foundation-level program that aims to impart an understanding of investment industry fundamentals. While the CFA curriculum is much more in-depth, the Claritas program can be a good way to "test the waters" for those considering enrollment in the CFA program. Different target markets: The Claritas certification is aimed at everyone in the investment industry who helps enable investment decision-making. The CFA program is targeted at those individuals who are directly involved in investment decision-making. Entry requirements: While the Claritas certificate is aimed at support staff in the financial services sector, there are no entry restrictions, and anyone can register for it. In contrast, the entry requirements for the CFA program are quite stringent – the candidate should have a Bachelor's degree (or be in the final year of a Bachelor's degree program), or have four years of professional work experience, or have a combined four years of college and professional work experience. Candidates also have to sign a Professional Conduct Statement disclosing if they have been the subject of a written complaint or have been involved in any litigation or investigation for the previous two years. Certificate / charter requirements: Candidates who successfully pass the Claritas exam receive the Claritas Investment Certificate. To become a CFA charterholder, the candidate has to pass all three levels of the CFA program, each of which culminates in a six-hour exam. In addition, the candidate must also possess four years of qualified investment work experience of which at least 50% must be directly involved in making investment decisions. Passing levels: 82% of the 2,408 candidates who took part in the Claritas pilot program successfully passed the exam. The 10-year average pass rate (from 2003 to 2012) for all three levels of the CFA program was 42%; only one in five people who begins the CFA program successfully completes it and becomes a CFA charterholder. Commitment levels: The Claritas program is cheaper and requires a far lower time commitment than the CFA. CFA candidates have to pay a one-time enrollment fee of US$440, as well as an exam registration fee that can range between US$620 and US$1,170, depending on whether the registration is done before the first deadline in September or the final one in March. Each level of the CFA program takes about six months of preparation. While most candidates take between two and five years to complete the program, successful candidates take an average of four years to do so. Who should enroll in the Claritas program?
Professionals working with investment decision makers in support or back-office / front-office functions – operations, administration, IT, human resources, marketing, sales, compliance, customer service. Since there are no restrictions on entry into the program, the Claritas program may be a cost-effective alternative for someone looking to switch fields and get into the financial services industry. It also appears well suited for students who wish to get into entry-level positions in financial services.
The Bottom Line
The Claritas Investment Certificate is likely to find growing acceptance as the new foundation-level education and ethics standard for the financial service sector internationally. While most nations have country-specific credentials for industry personnel involved in areas such as operations and compliance – for example, the Series 99 and Series 14 exams in the U.S. – there are no alternatives at the international level. The fact that 3,300 candidates from 70 companies in 50 countries served as participants in the pilot program that was launched in January 2013 bodes well for its acceptance by large financial firms around the world. The Claritas Investment Certificate's association with the CFA Institute is also a powerful marketing tool, as 43% of the pilot study participants cited this as one of the top benefits of the program. The Claritas program may also possibly come to be regarded by potential CFA program participants as a useful sprint before embarking on the CFA marathon.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Ambarella: Hi-Def Dollars

This technology company is a leading developer of semiconductor processing solutions for video that enable high-definition, or HD, video capture, sharing, and display, explains small cap specialist Jim Oberweis Jr., of The Oberweis Report.

Ambarella's (AMBA) processor design capabilities, combined with expertise in video and image processing, algorithms, and software, together provide a technology platform that is easily scalable across multiple applications, and enables rapid, and efficient product development.

The company's system-on-a-chip, or SoC, designs, fully integrate HD video processing, image processing, audio processing, and system functions onto a single chip, delivering exceptional video and image quality, differentiated functionality and low power consumption.

In the camera market, their platform enables the creation of high-quality video content in wearable sports cameras, automotive aftermarket cameras, professional and consumer Internet Protocol, or IP, security cameras, digital still cameras, or DSCs, telepresence cameras, and camcorders.

In the camera market, their video processing solutions are designed into products from leading OEMs, including GoPro, Robert Bosch GmbH and affiliated entities, and Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.

In the infrastructure market, their solutions are designed into products from leading OEMs, including Harmonic Inc., Motorola Mobility, Inc. (owned by Google, Inc.), and LM Ericsson, who source their solutions from leading ODMs, such as Plexus Corp.

In the company's latest reported first fiscal quarter, sales increased approximately 31% to $33.9 million from $25.9 million in the third quarter of last year. Ambarella reported earnings per share of $.21 in the latest reported first quarter, versus $.11 in the same quarter of last year.

Clients of Oberweis Asset Management own approximately 100,000 shares. These shares may be appropriate for risk-oriented investors.

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Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Is This the Beginning of the End for Alzheimer's?

The cure, or even just an effective treatment, for Alzheimer's disease has remained elusive for decades. Many pharmaceutical companies to date have jumped on the bandwagon for targeting beta amyloid plaques after they develop. Unfortunately, no matter how promising drugs appear in phase 2 results, they fail in phase 3 trials without slowing the progression of this debilitating neurological disease. Now, researchers at the University of Cambridge have discovered the mechanism for the formation of beta amyloid plaques. Can this discovery lead to an effective treatment? It certainly has potential, but developing antibodies to target the process will take many years. Get the details from Fool contributor Maxx Chatsko in the video below.

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What's Getting Hacked Now? Your Phone, Your TV and Your Toilet

Lit bomb fuse on Caucasian businessman's cell phoneBlend Images, John Lund/Getty Images Think you're immune from hackers just because you've got an updated antivirus program on your computer? Well, think again. Hackers are regularly finding new and innovative ways to break into the various connected devices in your life. And security researchers are always publishing research demonstrating strange new methods that a determined hacker could use to invade your life. Here are a few of the terrifying threats we've come across lately. Hacking Your TV to Spy on You In the wake of revelations about the NSA's domestic surveillance programs, some observers expressed concern that the agency could compel Microsoft to use the camera attached to the new Xbox One to spy on users in their living rooms. But it turns out you don't need to be a government spook to watch people through their TVs. At last month's Black Hat security conference, researchers showed vulnerabilities in Samsung "Smart" TVs (which have Internet connectivity, webcams and other computers-like features) that could allow a hacker to take control of the television. And on Sunday, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) called for security standards to make sure that hackers couldn't use the built-in webcams to watch you while you watch TV. So if you don't want hackers watching you sit on the couch in your underwear, take the advice that the Black Hat researchers gave Mashable: "When in doubt, there's always a piece of tape or a post-it you can put on the camera." Hacking Your Phone Through a Charger If you've ever been stuck in an airport with your phone battery reading 10 percent, the sight of a charger plugged into a wall can look like an oasis in a desert. But wait! Is that really a charger? Not necessarily. Another demonstration at Black Hat showed an iPhone charger that was actually a micro-computer in disguise.

Plug in your iPhone and the tiny computer could upload a fake Facebook app that looks like the real thing but is capable of accessing your contacts and stealing your passwords, among other mayhem. Apple has promised to fix the vulnerability -- but not until its next operating system, iOS 7, comes out sometime this fall. In the meantime, be wary of any chargers you see lying around. Hacking Your Toilet OK, probably not toilet, assuming you have a regular toilet that relies entirely on pipes and water and doesn't have electrical components. But one brand of pricey, high-tech toilet is apparently prone to being hacked and remotely controlled. For some reason, the Satis Toilet has a mobile app that can control certain functions of the toilet over Bluetooth -- raising and lowering the lid, flushing, and even operating the bidet. But it turns out that the app isn't password protected, which means anyone in the vicinity of your toilet who has the app could make the toilet go crazy. Since there's no apparent financial benefit to flushing someone else's toilet, we're guessing hackers aren't lining up to take advantage of this. Still, turning on the bidet while your roommate is sitting on the toilet would be a great prank.

Monday, August 5, 2013

Another Solid Quarter for Oil Refiners

In the following video, Fool.com energy contributors Tyler Crowe and Aimee Duffy discuss what this earnings season shows us about the continuing boom in the American oil-refining industry. Tyler goes into what the earnings reports for Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO  ) and Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC  ) looked like and highlights how both companies were able to exceed expectations based on the continuing glut of available cheap crude, and he tells us what he's going to be looking for to get a clearer picture of where the industry as a whole is heading.

There are many different ways to play the energy sector, and The Motley Fool's analysts have uncovered an under-the-radar company that's dominating its industry. This company is a leading provider of equipment and components used in drilling and production operations and is poised to profit in a big way from it. To get the name and detailed analysis of this company that will prosper for years to come, check out the special free report: "The Only Energy Stock You'll Ever Need." Don't miss out on this limited-time offer and your opportunity to discover this company before the market does. Click here to access your report -- it's totally free.

Sunday, August 4, 2013

Will CF Industries Holdings Beat These Analyst Estimates?

CF Industries Holdings (NYSE: CF  ) is expected to report Q1 earnings on May 8. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict CF Industries Holdings's revenues will wither -5.9% and EPS will contract -2.3%.

The average estimate for revenue is $1.44 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $5.92.

Revenue details
Last quarter, CF Industries Holdings booked revenue of $1.48 billion. GAAP reported sales were 14% lower than the prior-year quarter's $1.72 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at $7.27. GAAP EPS of $7.43 for Q4 were 12% higher than the prior-year quarter's $6.65 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 44.3%, 600 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 41.5%, 680 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 31.8%, 630 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $5.97 billion. The average EPS estimate is $25.57.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a five-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 1,276 members out of 1,323 rating the stock outperform, and 47 members rating it underperform. Among 243 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 232 give CF Industries Holdings a green thumbs-up, and 11 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on CF Industries Holdings is hold, with an average price target of $232.57.

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