Monday, August 18, 2014

Netflix partner says Verizon slows traffic

netflix verizon speed Remember this from early June? Netflix and Verizon are still feuding over who's to blame for slow streaming speeds. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) The battle over Netflix streaming speeds is still raging.

Level 3 (LVLT), a firm Netflix (NFLX, Tech30) and others pay to deliver traffic to Internet service providers, joined the fray Thursday, accusing Verizon of refusing to upgrade its infrastructure to boost lagging streaming speeds.

Netflix has been complaining for months that some big broadband companies are allowing streaming speeds to slow down in order to compel Netflix to pay them for a faster connection. Netflix reached paid connection deals earlier this year with Comcast (CMCSA) and Verizon (VZ, Tech30). But it said it did so "reluctantly," arguing that the Internet providers were abusing their market power to extract tolls.

The battle came to a head in early June when some Netflix subscribers on Verizon's network were seeing a message pop up on their screens about slow video speeds.

This was happening just before Netflix was set to debut season 2 of its widely popular and Emmy-nominated series "Orange is the New Black."

The broadband providers counter that Netflix is generating ever-increasing amounts of data consumption on their networks without helping to pay for the infrastructure upgrades necessary to deliver that content. They also argue that Netflix could route its traffic more efficiently to avoid congestion, but that it refuses to do so because it doesn't want to increase its costs.

In a blog post Thursday, Level 3 vice president Mark Taylor said the cost for Verizon of reducing the congestion at connection points "is absolutely trivial."

"Could it be that Verizon wants to extract a pound of flesh from its competitors, using the monopoly it has over the only conn! ection to its end-users?" Taylor wrote.

A Verizon spokesman said Friday that the company was planning a response to Level 3. Netflix said Level 3 "is highlighting the same purposeful congestion by internet service providers that we have been discussing for months."

Online video is the buzz of Sun Valley   Online video is the buzz of Sun Valley

The dispute has drawn the interest of the Federal Communications Commission, which said last month that it planned to gather information on the issue to determine "precisely what is happening" and "whether consumers are being harmed."

Figuring out those questions isn't easy because none of the companies involved are telling the full story, said Dan Rayburn, a streaming media expert with Frost & Sullivan.

"This whole back-and-forth is getting really tiresome because none of them are showing all the pieces of information -- they're just showing what's in their favor," Rayburn said. He called on the firms to be transparent about the expenses involved in the various business arrangements being debated.

Netflix and Verizon have been criticizing each other despite the fact that the two companies reached an agreement in April in which Netflix will pay to boost streaming speeds by connecting directly to Verizon's network. This connection apparently isn't yet being used for all the traffic Netflix sends to Verizon, however.

Other big tech companies like Microsoft (MSFT, Tech30) and Apple (AAPL, Tech30) have similar agreements with Verizon.

Friday, August 15, 2014

Could Bigger Pay Raises (Yay!) Send Stocks Sliding (Booo!)?

Two business persons working at office desk with colleagues in the back Getty Images Throughout the economic recovery of the past five years, one area that hasn't seen as much improvement as expected has been worker pay. Yet even though one survey of major employers forecasts pay raises next year will continue growing more slowly than a decade ago, some finally believe that the long lull in labor cost increases could finally come to an end. If that happens, it could take away one of the key underpinnings of the bull market in stocks that has been running since 2009. The 2014/2015 U.S. Compensation Planning Survey from the human resources consultants at Mercer found that most employers expect to keep their pay raises for 2015 in line with the recent past. After gains of just over 2 percent in 2009 and 2010 that corresponded to periods of extremely high unemployment, wages have increased at a higher rate. Nevertheless, employers have managed to keep increased labor costs within a tight range of 2.7 percent to 2.9 percent over the past four years, and Mercer expects that 2015 raises will come in at around 3 percent once again. But not every worker can expect to see raises that size. Mercer found that the energy industry -- which has seen some of the largest growth in the domestic economy recently thanks to the boom in unconventional oil and gas exploration and production -- should see base pay rise 3.5 percent on average next year. By contrast, several other industries, including service providers outside the financial sector, will see subpar earnings growth. Moreover, merit will determine a substantial portion of overall pay raises. Top-rated workers can expect to get raises of nearly 5 percent, while those among the lowest-rated in any particular company will be lucky to see pay levels stay flat, according to Mercer. Getting Back to Normal? Even with the slight upward trend in raises, growth in salaries still hasn't matched levels from 10 to 15 years ago when jobs were more plentiful and workers were in demand. As unemployment rates have fallen, though, companies have started getting the message that they'll have to pay their best workers more in order to retain their top talent. If that happens, then it would be good news for struggling workers, who've had to endure tough financial conditions for a long time. Median household income fell for four straight years following the 2008 recession, and even after a modest recovery, it remains below levels from the early 2000s . With inflation running at 2 percent, a 3-percent pay hike won't fully close the gap, but it will keep median incomes moving in the right direction. What's good news for workers could be bad news for investors, though. A Catalyst for the Next Correction? Historically, profit margins for U.S. corporations have run at around 6 percent, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Over the past several years, though, profit margins have climbed well above that level, ranging from roughly 8 percent to 10 percent. Although a number of factors have kept profit margins high, low labor costs and higher worker productivity have played key roles in helping companies cut costs. Many analysts have feared, though, that the trend toward lower labor costs was bound to reverse itself in time. Much of the focus of that fear has been on signs of inflation for raw materials used in manufacturing, but if labor costs climb back toward more typical historical levels, then they could put further pressure on corporate profits. High profit margins have contributed greatly to rising earnings, which in turn have helped keep the stock market climbing. As the bull market ages, though, a pause in earnings growth could be the catalyst for a long-awaited correction in stocks. If pay raises do start to accelerate this year and in future years, then resulting higher labor costs could turn out to be the cause of the next stock-market downturn.

Friday, August 8, 2014

5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Corporate insiders sell their own companies' stock for a number of reasons. 


They might need the cash for a big personal purchase such as a new house or yacht, or they might need the cash to fund a charity. Sometimes they sell as part of a planned selling program that they have put in place for diversification purposes, which allows them to sell stock in stages instead of selling all at one price.

Other times they sell because they think their stock is overvalued and the risk/reward is no longer attractive. Some even dump their own stock because they have inside knowledge that a competitor is eating their lunch and stealing market share. 


But insiders usually buy their own shares for one reason: They think the stock is a bargain and has tremendous upside.

Read More: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks

The key word in that last statement is "think." Just because a corporate insider thinks his or her stock is going to trade higher, that doesn't mean it will play out that way. Insiders can have all the conviction in the world that their stock is a buy, but if the market doesn't agree with them, the stock could end up going nowhere. Also, I say "usually" because sometimes insiders are loaned money by the company to buy their own stock. Those loans are often sweetheart deals and shouldn't be viewed as organic insider buying.

At the end of the day, it's institutional money managers running big mutual funds and hedge funds that drive stock prices, not insiders. That said, many of these savvy stock operators will follow insider buying activity when they agree with the insider that the stock is undervalued and has upside potential. This is why it's so important to always be monitoring insider activity but twice as important to make sure the trend of the stock coincides with the insider buying.


Recently, a number of companies' corporate insiders have bought large amounts of stock. These insiders are finding some value in the market, which warrants a closer look at these stocks. Here's a look five stocks whose insiders have been doing some big buying per SEC filings.

Read More: 8 Stocks George Soros Is Buying

eHealth

One insurance broker that insiders are loading up on here is eHealth (EHTH), which provides online health insurance services for individuals, families, and small businesses in the U.S. Insiders are buying this stock into major weakness, since shares are down 53% so far in 2014.

eHealth has a market cap of $412 million and an enterprise value of $339 million. This stock trades at a fair valuation, with a forward price-to-earnings of 58.68. Its estimated growth rate for this year is -22.2%, and for next year it's pegged at 428.6%. This is a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $70.38 million and its total debt is zero.

A beneficial owner just bought 329,540 shares, or about $6.55 million worth of stock, at $19.04 to $20.99 per share.

From a technical perspective, EHTH is currently trending below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock recently gapped down sharply lower from $31.92 to $18.70 a share with heavy downside volume. Following that gap, shares of EHTH have started to rebound higher off that $18.70 low and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a big breakout trade above some key near-term overhead resistance levels.

If you're bullish on EHTH, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some near-term support at $20 or above that recent low of $18.70 and then once it breaks out above some key overhead resistance levels at $22.50 to its gap-down-day high of $23.50 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 427,520 shares. If that breakout materializes soon, then EHTH will set up to re-fill some of its previous gap-down-day zone that started at $31.92 a share.

Read More: These 5 Hated Stocks Could Pop When the S&P Drops

PNC Financial Services Group

Another banking player that insiders are active in here is PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), which operates as a diversified financial services company in the U.S. Insiders are buying this stock into modest strength, since shares are up around 5% so far in 2014.

PNC Financial Services Group has a market cap of $43 billion and an enterprise value of $67 billion. This stock trades at a fair valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 10.9 and a forward price-to-earnings of 11. Its estimated growth rate for this year is -3.7%, and for next year it's pegged at 4.1%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $25.52 billion and its total debt is just $49.07 billion. This stock currently sports a dividend yield of 2.1%.

A director just bought 25,000 shares, or about $2.04 million worth of stock, at $81.86 per share.

From a technical perspective, PNC is currently trending below its 50-day moving average and just above its 200-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last month, with shares moving lower from its high of $89.51 to its recent low of $80.43 a share. During that move, shares of PNC have been making mostly lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of PNC have now started to bounce off its recent low of $80.43 a share.

If you're in the bull camp on PNC, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above that recent low $80.43 and then once it takes out above some near-term overhead resistance at $83 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.99 million shares. If that move gets underway soon, then PNC will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $84 to $85 a share, or even its 50-day moving average of $86.13 a share. Any high-volume moves above its 50-day will then give PNC a chance to tag $87 to $88 a share.

Read More: 5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for Correction Gains

Mallinckrodt

One health care player that insiders are snapping up a huge amount of stock in here is Mallinckrodt (MNK), which manufactures, markets and distributes branded and generic specialty pharmaceuticals, active pharmaceutical ingredients and diagnostic imaging agents worldwide. Insiders are buying this stock into modest weakness, since shares are down by 6.2% over the last three months.

Mallinckrodt has a market cap of $4 billion and an enterprise value of $6 billion. This stock trades at a reasonable valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 63 and a forward price-to-earnings of 11. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 11.4%, and for next year it's pegged at 75.4%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $344.90 million and its total debt is $2.22 billion.

A beneficial owner just bought 275,000 shares, or about $19.13 million worth of stock, at $69.45 per share.

From a technical perspective, MNK is currently trending below its 50-day moving average and above its 200-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last month, with shares sliding lower from its high of $83.20 to its recent low of $68.42 a share. During that downtrend, shares of MNK have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action.

If you're bullish on MNK, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some near-term support at $68.42 and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance at $71.19 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 1.65 million shares. If that breakout gets underway soon, then MNK will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $75 to its 50-day moving average of $75.79, or even $77.50 a share.

Read More: 4 Stocks Warren Buffett Is Selling in 2014

Intevac

One technology player that insiders are jumping into here in a big way is Intevac (IVAC), which provides process manufacturing equipment solutions to the hard disk drive and photovoltaic industries. Insiders are buying this stock into weakness, since shares are down by 12% so far in 2014.

Intevac has a market cap of $153 million and an enterprise value of $96 million. This stock trades at a cheap valuation, with a price-to-sales of 2.17 and a price-to-book of 1.28. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 33.3%, and for next year it's pegged at 48.1%. This is a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $58.23 million and its total debt is zero.

A director just bought 486,928 shares, or about $3.08 million worth of stock, at $6.30 per share.

From a technical perspective, IVAC is currently trending below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last month, with shares moving lower from its high of $8.75 to its recent low of $5.98 a share. During that move, shares of IVAC have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of IVAC have now started to rebound off that $5.98 low and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

If you're bullish on IVAC, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above that recent low of $5.98 and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance at $6.69 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 204,202 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then IVAC will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 50-day moving average of $7.43 to its 200-day moving average at $7.48 a share.

Read More: 5 Big Stocks to Buy for Tactical Gains

Armstrong World Industries

One final stock with some monster insider buying is Armstrong World Industries (AWI), which designs, manufactures, and sells flooring products and ceiling systems worldwide. Insiders are buying this stock into modest strength, since shares are up by 6% over the last three months.

Armstrong World Industries has a market cap of $3 billion and an enterprise value of $3.9 billion. This stock trades at a reasonable valuation, with a trialing price-to-earnings of 29 and a forward price-to-earnings of 18. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 11.8%, and for next year it's pegged at 32.9%.This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $152.60 million and its total debt is $1.13 billion.

A beneficial owner just bought 1 million shares, or about $49.10 million worth of stock, at $48.73 per share.

From a technical perspective, AWI is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending over the last few weeks, with shares moving higher from its low of $48.35 to its intraday high of $55.49 a share. During that move, shares of AWI have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of AWI within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

If you're bullish on AWI, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some near-term support levels at $53 or above $52 and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance at $55.81 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.08 million shares. If that breakout kicks off soon, then AWI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $58 to $58.28 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give AWI a chance to tag its 52-week high at $61.90 a share.

To see more stocks with notable insider buying, check out the Stocks With Big Insider Buying portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>4 Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher



>>3 Stocks Rising on Big Volume



>>5 Tech Trades Ready to Move

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Today’s Pre-Market Earnings: Diebold Inc, HollyFrontier Corp, Viacom, Inc., More (DBD, HFC, VIAB, More)

Before the opening bell on Wednesday, a number of big name, dividend paying companies announced their quarterly earnings. Below, we look at these earnings reports and break down the important points for investors.

Chesapeake Energy Misses EPS Estimates

Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) reported Q2 earnings of $145 million, or 22 cents per share, down from $457 million, or 66 cents per share, a year ago. Excluding special items, earnings were $235 million, or 36 cents per share, down from $265 million, or 51 cents per share, last year. Revenue rose to $5.152 billion from $4.675 billion last year. On average, analysts expected to see adjusted earnings of 44 cents per share and $4.91 billion in revenue.

Diebold Swings to Q2 Profit; Beats EPS Estimates; Revenue Misses

Diebold Inc (DBD) posted Q2 net income of $41.6 million, or 64 cents per share, compared to a net loss of $105.0 million, or $1.65 per share, a year ago. Excluding special item, earnings were 47 cents per share, above analysts’ view of 39 cents per share. Revenue increased to $733.5 million from $707.1 million last year, but missed analysts’ estimate of $735.61 million. Looking ahead, DBD has raised its FY2014 EPS outlook to a range of $1.55 to $1.80 (from $1.30 to $1.55 per share). Analysts expect to see EPS of $1.77.

See Also: Behind Diebold: The Most Consistent Dividend Payer Ever (DBD)

HollyFrontier Misses E

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

7 Costly Myths About Banking, Credit Cards Debunked

Banks and credit card companies find clever ways to make money. Fees are hidden. Rules are complex. And people often ask me, "can they really do that?" I made a list of the seven most common myths that I regularly hear from people. Here are the protections you think you have, and what you can do to make sure you really are safe. Yes they can. The CARD Act did get rid of the most outrageous abuse: they can no longer increase the interest rate on existing balances unless you go 60 days past due. However, you need to remember that: Most credit card interest rates are variable and are linked to the prime rate. Your high rate will only go higher when interest rates increase. Based upon risk, your credit card company can still increase your interest rate on all future purchases. Your existing balances are protected, but future purchases would be at the higher rate. And determining risk is not limited to your behavior on your existing card. If you miss a payment with another lender, that could lead to an increase on all of your credit cards. After 12 months, they can increase your rate for almost any reason. But the increased rate only applies to future purchases, and they need to give you 45 days notice.

Credit cards are incredibly expensive ways to borrow money. If you use a card, your goal should be to pay off the balance in full every month. Then, the interest rate doesn't matter. Bottom line: If you do have debt, you should never be paying the purchase APR. Look for a balance transfer, or get a personal loan to cut your interest rate. And take a long hard look at your spending to put more money towards paying off that debt.  

1. My credit card company cannot raise my interest rate

No, they are not. There is a big difference between a 0% balance transfer (where the interest is waived during the promotional period, discussed above) and 0% purchase financing offered at many stores (where the interest is only deferred). I regularly encourage people to use balance transfers to help them pay off their debt faster. With a balance transfer, interest is switched off or reduced during the promotional period. Once the promotional period is over, interest starts to accrue on a go-forward basis. This can take years off your debt repayment. But stores offer 0 percent financing at the checkout. With a lot of these programs, interest is charged from the purchase date if you do not pay off the balance in full during the promotional period. So, if you have a 12-month 0 percent offer -– and do not pay off the balance in 12 months -– then in month 13 you will be charged a full 13 months of interest. They retroactively charge interest, and it will be like you never had a 0 percent offer at all.  

This is a common practice. Online, Apple (AAPL) does this, via their partnership with Barclaycard (BCS). And stores like Walmart (WMT) do the same thing. Bottom line: I don't like deferred interest deals. Most people do not understand the difference between waived and deferred interest, and this practice feels deceptive. If you take one of these offers, make sure you pay off the balance in full before the promotion expires.  

2. All 0% offers are the same Not always. Credit card companies have different rates for different types of transactions. The interest rate charged on a purchase (high) is different from a balance transfer APR (low). Before the CARD Act, banks would apply your payment to the lowest APR balance first. Imagine you have a $1,000 balance. $500 is at 0 percent (balance transfer), and the other $500 is at 18 percent (purchase). If you make a $100 payment, banks would apply that to the balance transfer. That way, they reduce the balance transfer (at 0 percent) to $400, while protecting the $500 purchase balance (at 18 percent). The CARD Act changed that. Banks now need to apply payments to the highest interest rate first. But this only applies to payments higher than the minimum due. If you only pay the minimum due every month, your payment will still likely be applied to the lowest interest rate balance first. Bottom line: You should never spend and have a balance transfer on the same credit card. Banks can only "trap" balances when you have multiple balance types on one card. 3. My credit card payment always goes to the highest interest rate first Not exactly true. The CARD Act has stopped the handout of T-shirts on the steps of the school libraries, but they can still give sign-on bonuses. And they advertise on campus. For example, Citibank (C) has a "Thank You Preferred" card for college students. If you spend $500 in the first three months, you get 2,500 thank you points as a bonus. That is $25 of value.

Monday, August 4, 2014

5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Short-sellers hate being caught short a stock that reports a blowout quarter. When this happens, we often see a tradable short squeeze develop as the bears rush to cover their positions to avoid big losses. Even the best short-sellers know that it's never a great idea to stay short once a bullish earnings report sparks a big short-covering rally.




This is why I scan the market for heavily shorted stocks that are about to report earnings. You only need to find a few of these stocks in a year to help enhance your portfolio returns -- the gains become so outsized in such a short time frame that your profits add up quickly.

That said, let's not forget that stocks are heavily shorted for a reason, so you have to use trading discipline and sound money management when playing earnings short-squeeze candidates. It's important that you don't go betting the farm on these plays and that you manage your risk accordingly. Sometimes the best play is to wait for the stock to break out following the report before you jump in to profit off a short squeeze. This way, you're letting the trend emerge after the market has digested all of the news.

Read More: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks

Of course, sometimes the stock is going to be in such high demand that you risk missing a lot of the move by waiting. That's why it can be worth betting prior to the report -- but only if the stock is acting technically very bullish and you have a very strong conviction that it is going to rip higher. Just remember that even when you have that conviction and have done your due diligence, the stock can still get hammered if Wall Street doesn't like the numbers or guidance.

If you do decide to bet ahead of a quarter, then you might want to use options to limit your capital exposure. Heavily shorted stocks are usually the names that make the biggest post-earnings moves and have the most volatility. I personally prefer to wait until all the earnings-related news is out for a heavily shorted stock and then jump in and trade the prevailing trend.

With that in mind, here's a look at several stocks that could experience big short squeezes when they report earnings this week.

Read More: 5 Breakout Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

YY

My first earnings short-squeeze trade idea is Chinese online social media platform player YY (YY), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect YY to report revenue of $121.71 million on earnings of 58 cents per share.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for YY is extremely high at 16.9%. That means that out of the 27.42 million shares in the tradable float, 4.63 million shares are sold short by the bears. This is a large short interest on a stock with a relatively low tradable float. Any bullish earnings news could easily spark a solid short-covering rally post-earnings that forces the bears to cover some of their bets.

From a technical perspective, YY is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last three months, with shares moving higher from its low of $51.084 to its recent high of $81.84 a share. During that uptrend, shares of YY have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of YY within range of triggering a major breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're bullish on YY, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $81.84 to $82.54 a share and then above more resistance at $85.98 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 1.97 million shares. If that breakout triggers post-earnings, then YY will set up to re-test or possibly take out its all-time high at $90.93 a share. Any high-volume move above that level will then give YY a chance to tag and potentially trend well north of $100 a share.

Read More: 3 Stocks Spiking on Big Volume

I would simply avoid YY or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some key near-term support at $74.21 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then YY will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at its 50-day moving average of $71.77 to $67.50 a share, or even its 200-day moving average of $64.04 a share.

Zulily

Another potential earnings short-squeeze play is e-commerce player Zulily (ZU), which is set to release its numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Zulily to report revenue $272.04 million on earnings of 3 cents per share.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Zulily is extremely high at 48.2%. That means that out of the 18.05 million shares in the tradable float, 8.71 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 30.5%, or by about 2.03 million shares. If the bears get caught pressing their bets into a bullish quarter, then shares of ZU could easily explode sharply higher post-earnings as the shorts jump to cover some of their trades.

From a technical perspective, ZU is currently trending below its 50-day moving average, which is bearish. This stock has been consolidating and trending sideways for the last month, with shares moving between $33 on the downside and $37.88 on the upside. Any high-volume move above the upper-end of its recent range post-earnings could trigger a big breakout trade for shares of ZU.

If you're in the bull camp on ZU, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above its 50-day moving average of $36.43 a share and then once it takes out more key overhead resistance levels at $37.86 to $37.88 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 1.25 million shares. If that breakout gets underway post-earnings, then ZU will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $41.89 to $42.56 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give ZU a chance to re-fill some of its previous gap-down-day zone from May that started near $50 a share.

Read More: 8 Stocks George Soros Is Buying

I would simply avoid ZU or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some key near-term support levels at $33.40 to $33 a share and then below $31.81 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then ZU will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $29.05 to its 52-week low of $28.75 a share.

Conversant

Another potential earnings short-squeeze candidate is digital marketing services player Conversant (CNVR), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Conversant to report revenue of $138.14 million on earnings of 35 cents per share.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Conversant is extremely high at 26.5%. That means that out of the 62.32 million shares in the tradable float, 16.55 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 16.7%, or by about 2.37 million shares. If the bears get caught pressing their bets into a strong quarter, then shares of CNVR could easily rip sharply higher post-earnings as the shorts rush to cover some of their positions.

From a technical perspective, CNVR is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock is just starting to spike higher right off its 50-day moving average of $24.42 a share. This spike is starting to push shares of CNVR within range of triggering a major breakout trade post-earnings above some key overhead resistance levels.

If you're bullish on CNVR, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $25.50 to $25.94 a share and then above $26.19 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 712,319 shares. If that breakout starts post-earnings, then CNVR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at its 52-week high at $28.79 a share to $32.25 a share.

I would avoid CNVR or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then takes out its 200-day moving average of $23.60 a share to some more key support levels at $23.35 to $22.87 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then CNVR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $22.21 to $20.52 a share, or even its 52-week low of $18.62 a share.

Read More: 5 Big Stocks to Buy for Tactical Gains: Must-See Charts

Rocket Fuel

Another earnings short-squeeze prospect is artificial-intelligence digital advertising solutions provider Rocket Fuel (FUEL), which is set to release numbers on Tuesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Rocket Fuel to report revenue of $90.22 million on a loss of 22 cents per share.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Rocket Fuel is extremely high a 23.7%. That means that out of the 18.61 million shares in the tradable float, 4.42 million shares are sold short by the bears. This is a very large short interest on a stock with a low tradable float. If the bulls get the earnings news they're looking for, then shares of FUEL could easily explode sharply higher post-earnings as the bears jump to cover some of their positions.

From a technical perspective, FUEL is currently trending just above its 50-day moving average and well below its 200-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock has been uptrending a bit over the last few weeks, with shares moving higher from its low of $22.07 to its recent high of $27.04 a share. During that move, shares of FUEL have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of FUEL within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're bullish on FUEL, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $27.04 to $29 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 771,327 shares. If that breakout starts post-earnings, then FUEL will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $31.61 to $31.84 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give FUEL a chance to tag its next major overhead resistance levels at $35.08 to $38.32 a share.

Read More: 5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

I would simply avoid FUEL or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then takes out some key near-term support at $24.32 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then FUEL will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels $22.07 to its 52-week low of $19.31 a share. Any high-volume move below $19.31 will then push shares of FUEL into new 52-week-low territory, which is bearish technical price action.

First Solar

My final earnings short-squeeze trade idea is solar energy player First Solar (FSLR), which is set to release numbers on Tuesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect First Solar to report revenue of $795.88 million on earnings of 37 cents per share.

Just recently, Brean Capital issued a report that said shares of First Solar are dramatically undervalued due to the market favoring distributed generation over utility of scale exposure. Brean has a buy rating on the stock and an $83 per share price target.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for First Solar is pretty high at 12.4%. That means that out of the 73.25 million shares in the tradable float, 9.11 million shares are sold short by the bears. If the bulls get the earnings news they're looking for, then shares of FSLR could easily jump sharply higher post-earnings as the shorts rush to cover some of their trades.

From a technical perspective, FSLR is currently trending above its 200-day moving average and just below its 50-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock has been trending sideways and consolidating for the last month, with shares moving between $60.58 on the downside and $66.68 on the upside. Any high-volume move above the upper-end of its recent range post-earnings could easily trigger a big breakout trade for shares of FSLR.

If you're in the bull camp on FSLR, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above its 50-day moving average of $65.16 a share to more near-term overhead resistance at $66.68 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that registers near or above its three-month average action of 2.83 million shares. If that breakout kicks off post-earnings, then FSLR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $72.68 to its 52-week high at $74.84 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give FSLR a chance to tag $80 a share.

I would avoid FSLR or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout, and then drops back below some key near-term support levels at $60.58 to $57.80 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then FSLR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $52.42 to $49.52 a share.

To see more potential earnings short squeeze plays, check out the Earnings Short-Squeeze Plays portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


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Saturday, August 2, 2014

3 Tech Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Read More: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume recently.

Read More: 5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

Voxeljet AG

Voxeljet AG (VJET) provides three-dimensional printers and on-demand parts services to industrial and commercial customers. This stock closed up 8.5% at $19.90 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 764,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 649,529

Volume % Change: 50%

From a technical perspective, VJET ripped substantially higher here right above some near-term support at $17.56 with above-average volume. This stock recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $17.88 to $17.56. Following that bottom, shares of VJET have started to spike sharply higher and it's breaking out above some near-term overhead resistance at $19.48. Market players should now look for a continuation move to the upside in the near-term if VJET manages to take out Wednesday's intraday high of $19.95 with strong volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in VJET as long as it's trending above Wednesday's intraday low of $18.30 or above some more near-term support at $17.56 and then once it sustains a move or close above $19.95 with volume that's near or above 649,529 shares. If that move kicks off soon, then VJET will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $21.64 to $22. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give VJET a chance to tag $24.

Read More: Warren Buffett's Top 25 Stocks for 2014

VMware

VMware (VMW) provides virtualization infrastructure solutions in the U.S. and internationally. This stock closed up 3.2% to $101.83 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 3.18 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.34 million

Volume % Change: 115%

From a technical perspective, VMW jumped notably higher here and broke out above some near-term overhead resistance at $99.36 with above-average volume. This uptick higher on Wednesday pushed shares of VMW inside of its previous gap-down-day zone from April that started at $107.32. Market players should now look for a continuation move to the upside in the short-term if VMW manages to take out Wednesday's intraday high of $102.31 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in VMW as long as it's trending above $99.36 or above Wednesday's intraday low of $98.99 and then once it sustains a move or close above $102.31 with volume that hits near or above 1.34 million shares. If that move gets underway soon, then VMW will set up to re-fill the rest of that gap from April that started at $107.32. Any high-volume move above $107.32 will then give VMW a chance to tag $110 to its 52-week high at $112.89.

Read More: 8 Stocks George Soros Is Buying

Synchronoss Technologies

Synchronoss Technologies (SNCR) provides cloud solutions and software-based activation for connected devices worldwide. This stock closed up 2.4% at $40.68 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 747,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 361,990

Volume % Change: 134%

From a technical perspective, SNCR jumped notably higher here with strong upside volume flows. This stock gapped up sharply higher on Tuesday from around $34 to $41.40 with monster upside volume. Shares of SNCR had a continuation move higher on Wednesday with another day of strong volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of SNCR within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if SNCR manages to take out Wednesday's intraday high of $41 to its 52-week high at $41.40 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SNCR as long as it's trending above Wednesday's intraday low of $39.67 or above $38 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that this near or above 361,990 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then SNCR will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $45 to $50.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Dividend Stocks Ready to Pay You More



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>>3 Big M&A Stocks on Traders' Radars

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24. 



Friday, August 1, 2014

Lowest August gas prices in four years

chart gas prices Gas prices have slumped to their lowest August level since 2010, according to Gasbuddy. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Drivers, rejoice! Gas prices are the lowest they've been at the start of August in four years.

The national average price for a gallon of unleaded dropped to $3.509 on Friday, according to data provider Gasbuddy.com.

That's a 15-cent drop from the price on July 4, a holiday that typically sees high demand from a lot of driving, according to Gasbuddy.com.

It's a 35-cent drop from June 25, when the world was still reeling from "petronoia" over the fall of the Iraqi city Mosul to extremist militants, according to Tom Kloza, energy analyst for Gasbuddy.com.

For sale: Steve McQueen's 1967 Ferrari

He said that gas prices will most likely rise over the next month or so, partly because of high demand from late summer vacation driving, and partly because August is typically a stormy month in the Gulf of Mexico and could interfere with refineries there.

But once those factors mellow out in the latter part of the year, Kloza expects that gas prices will once again drop to four-year lows during the fourth quarter. He said the nationwide average could drop back to where it was in February and March: $3.25 a gallon.

"We're on a pretty good course," said Kloza. "There's going to be a large slice of the country where you're going to be able to pay less than 3 dollars a gallon in the last 100 days of the year."

He said that Americans are already paying less than $3 per gallon in some rural areas, including two gas stations in Texas, five in Virginia, four in South Carolina, one in Alabama, one in Mississippi and 16 Oklahoma.

But to put that in perspective, he said that's only 29 gas stations out of about 130,000.

Are Robo-Advisors Poised to Take Over?

It’s what some are starting to call “a digital wealth management revolution.”

Advances in digital technologies have made it possible for new financial tech companies to pop up in the wealth management space, challenging traditional advisory models.

One has to look no further than the amount of money being pumped into these startups to see this.

Investment in financial technology tripled between 2008 and 2013 from $928 million to $2.97 billion and is expected to double again to between $6 billion and $8 billion by 2018, according to a report by Accenture. The first quarter of 2014 was the most active on record, with $1.7 billion invested globally. Investment in financial technology in the United States alone could reach $4.7 billion annually by 2018, reports Accenture.

“The big story today is the wrath of upstarts who are entering the retail financial services space who are using digital technology to create great customer experience at a lower cost than incumbents can,” said Bill Doyle, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester Research, during a new webinar, “Understanding The Digital Wealth Management Revolution” provided by Xignite, a cloud-based market data provider based in San Mateo, California.

Doyle pointed to companies like Betterment, LearnVest, Wealthfront and Jemstep as examples of growing upstarts. Adding that three digital investment managers now have more than $2 billion in assets under management— AssetBuilder with $635 million as of April 14, Betterment with $500 million as of April 14 and Wealthfront with $1 billion as of June 14.

“In a wealth management industry that’s measured in trillions of dollars, these digital investment managers are still tiny, but they’re establishing a foothold in a managed accounts market that has been dominated by advisor-based firms like Ameriprise and Raymond James,” Doyle said during his webinar presentation.

This is driven in part by consumers becoming increasingly digitally savvy, creating what Doyle is calling “a mobile mind shift.”

More than a quarter of U.S. adults have made the mobile mind shift, and Doyle said this will continue to rise as more older adults connect with more devices.

“The shifted customers expect that any desired information or service is going to be available on any device at their moment of need,” Doyle said. “They judge firms on their ability to deliver.”

Interactions where in-person communication would once have been preferred, such as advisor meetings with clients, are now happening online.

Doyle said consumers turn to digital channels first to research products, and once they’ve made a decision on an investment product, they transact digitally because it’s easier. He added that clients choose to stay in touch through digital channels because it’s better; they would prefer digital documents over paper.

And millennials, by nature, are digitally astute. Andy Rachleff, executive chairman of the automated investment service provider Wealthfront, credits millennials for the birth of his firm.

“There’s an enormous population of clients that is currently not served by the investment management industry, and they are the millennial generation,” Rachleff said in the webinar. “That’s because the average account size for millennials does not meet the required minimum of the existing suppliers.”

Collectively, Rachleff added, the millennial generation has more than $2 trillion of investable assets, expected to grow to $7 trillion over the next five years.

“In total, this generation is likely to have more assets to manage than the baby boomer generation and there are going to be many more of them,” he said.

The thing about millennials is they “have very different interests in what they want from an investment management solution than what their parents want.”

Rachleff said they want something automated, passive and low-cost.

“In other words, they want an automated investment service,” he said.

 

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