Thursday, January 29, 2015

What Does GNC's Renewed Agreement With Rite Aid Imply About Its Future?

Have you ever heard in business that it's not what you know, it's who you know that counts? The saying implies that relationships are not just important in business, but imperative if you want any hope of success. One company that realized this early on was GNC Holdings (NYSE: GNC  ) , a provider of nutritional supplements based out of Pittsburgh.

Throughout the past several years, the company has struck deals with Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD  ) , PetSmart, and Sam's Club, a segment of Wal-Mart. The company's most recent agreement involved it renewing its relationship with Rite Aid through 2019 and adding GNC locations to at least 300 additional Rite Aid stores. Using these relationships, GNC strives to increase its market share, but as I chronicled in an earlier article, it has to accept some downsides. It is also provided some very attractive benefits.

Revenue is impaired
Perhaps the most interesting of GNC relationship's is with Rite Aid. According to an agreement between these two companies, GNC has been able to set up a store-within-a-store model inside of various Rite Aid locations. Such a decision between two companies to join forces in this way may appear to be odd, but the model has worked out so well that other retailers like J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP  ) have adopted it.

In an effort to grow its business, J.C. Penney began implementing a store-within-a-store setup as early as 2007. However, the company began experiencing financial strain after its former CEO, Mike Ullman, retired and Ron Johnson, a former executive at Apple, took his place. Johnson, who believed that coupons were bad for customers and that instead J.C. Penney should abolish them and adopt a policy of everyday low prices, was also responsible for pushing the store-within-a-store initiative with Martha Stewart Living as its flagship test subject.

After seeing revenue decline significantly and a net gain transform into a net loss, Johnson was ousted and Ullman was brought back in with the goal of turning the business around. Recognizing the appeal of the store-within-a-store model, Ullman elected to continue and expand the concept by bringing in big names like Disney. Since then, the store-within-a-store design has been a cornerstone for J.C. Penney's attempted turnaround.

By the end of GNC's 2012 fiscal year, it had this kind of setup inside 2,181 Rite Aid locations. To put this in perspective, 26.8% of GNC's locations were located inside of Rite Aid stores, far from being insignificant. Despite this, total revenue from these locations only accounted for 2.5% (or $60.75 million) of the company's consolidated revenue for the year.

On a per-store basis, this implies revenue of $27,854. In contrast, revenue for the stand-alone retail and franchise locations averaged $367,538 per year, which indicates there is a lot more value to be had by foregoing said partnerships.

Unlike the company's agreement with Rite Aid, its relationships with Sam's Club and PetSmart don't involve a store-within-a-store design. Because of this, it's impossible to break down revenue the company receives from each entity, but we can conclude that it generated combined revenue of $176.1 million from them in 2012 and $158.8 million in 2011.

This means that while revenue only grew 1.1% for its Rite Aid locations between 2011 and 2012, it rose 10.9% in the company's other business alliances. Growth like this is nothing to scoff at, but it fell short of the 17.3% growth the company experienced on a consolidated basis.

But revenue isn't all that matters!
Looking only at revenue, we might say that GNC would be better off not having its stores located within Rite Aid and possibly not even through its connections with Wal-Mart and PetSmart. This would be especially true if the company's margins from these relationships were smaller than its retail and franchise segments. If this were the case, management would be wise to abandon these endeavors and instead refocus their efforts on adding to their retail or franchise locations.

Interestingly, this isn't the case. Although growth is lower than it is in the company's retail and franchise operations, margins are considerably higher. In 2012, the operating margin for this segment came out to an impressive 40.3%. This marks an annual increase from the 37.7% operating margin earned in 2010 and has been attributed to higher wholesale margins (aka economies of scale) and greater proprietary shipments.

These results are far higher than the 19.4% operating margin of the company's retail segment and slightly higher than its franchise segment, which earned 33.4% last year. Admittedly, these operating segments have both experienced improvements over the past three years, but still have some ways to go before matching the company's manufacturing/wholesale segment.

Foolish takeaway
Based on the data provided by GNC, the company is trying to take a multifaceted approach to improving its business. By focusing on its retail or franchise operations, management could ensure greater prospects but would be forgoing some considerable margins. For this reason alone, the company is smart in focusing most of its time and energy growing its other segments in the hopes that as its business becomes larger, management's ability to engage in these lucrative contracts will grow as well.

Ideally, management and shareholders alike are probably hoping to move more toward such licensing agreements down the road, but unless the company wants to cut revenue significantly, this isn't likely anytime soon. Rather, it would be reasonable to see licensing agreements with third parties grow as a percentage of revenue over time, especially as franchise opportunities eventually slow their growth in light of more market saturation.

What would Buffett do?
Warren Buffett has made billions through his investing and he wants you to be able to invest like him. Through the years, Buffett has offered up investing tips to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. Now you can tap into the best of Warren Buffett's wisdom in a new special report from The Motley Fool. Click here now for a free copy of this invaluable report.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

LPL upgraded, but what's changed?

A little more than a year after slapping a “sell” rating on LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA), UBS analyst Alex Kramm upgraded the stock this week to “neutral.”

He increased the price target of the stock's shares to $42 from $33. The firm was trading at $41.91 Tuesday afternoon.

What's changed at LPL in the past 14 months to warrant the slightly rosier outlook from Mr. Kramm?

Foremost is the potential for continued growth at the firm, which has more than 13,000 independent financial advisers and registered reps. After struggling — as did competitors — in the first half of the year with recruiting, LPL added 153 net new advisers in the quarter ended in September.

“We believe LPLA represents a pure play on growth in the independent adviser space, one of the most well-documented trends in the financial services industry,” according to Mr. Kramm's research note.

Looming interest rate increases and the possibility of adding a bank, which management has recently discussed, also underpin Mr. Kramm's new neutral rating.

“With a potential hike in short-term interest rates also appearing closer, we believe LPLA also represents an underappreciated play on rates, while the potential to operate a bank could drive incremental upside,” he wrote. “Lastly, LPLA's significant cash flow allows the company to buy back a significant amount of its stock, which should support the shares.”

Mr. Kramm downgraded LPL in September 2012 for underperforming its peers and posting “virtually no earnings growth” over the first half of 2012. A year ago, it was trading in the $25 a share range.

Can Working Too Much Cut Your Social Security Benefits?

Making a smart choice about when to take Social Security is crucial, as your decision can affect your finances for the rest of your life. But some people don't realize that if they take early Social Security benefits before they stop working entirely, they can end up forfeiting some of what they receive from the government.

In the following video, host Alison Southwick interviews Dan Caplinger, The Motley Fool's director of investment planning, to learn more about how working can cut what you receive from Social Security. Dan notes that only people who have started taking early benefits but haven't reached their full retirement age need to worry, as anyone who has reached full retirement age can take their benefits without fear of forfeiting any of them no matter how much they work. But if you're younger than full-retirement age, you can lose $1 in Social Security benefits for every $2 you make above $15,120. For those who reach full-retirement age this year, higher limits apply, with the potential to lose $1 for every $3 you make above $40,080.

Dan continues by explaining that family members who receive benefits also have to pay attention to the limitations, as both their wages and the wages of the person on whose work history they're receiving benefits can come into play to cause reductions. Dan concludes that in general, it's smarter to wait until you've fully retired or reach full retirement age before starting to take Social Security in order to avoid the entire possibility of losing benefits.

Do you know everything you should about Social Security?
Complex rules like this make Social Security almost incomprehensible to many Americans. But we can shed some light on even the hardest-to-understand elements of Social Security to help you. In fact, that's why we came out with our brand-new free report, "Make Social Security Work Harder For You." Inside, our retirement experts give their insight on making the key decisions that will help ensure a more comfortable retirement for you and your family. Click here to get your copy today.

Monday, January 26, 2015

Europe's Stocks to Watch: Nokia, Centrica, H&M

Nokia is likely to be in focus Thursday, following a Wall Street Journal report that the Finish company’s board of directors has discussed pursuing a tie-up with Alcatel-Lucent.

This follows Nokia’s recent deal to sell its handset business to Microsoft, and forms part of a broad review of the many potential options for its future business strategy. Once the mobile-phone business is gone, Nokia is set to focus on growing the wireless networks business and its mapping software business.

Nokia’s decision to get out of the handset business and focus on wireless-network equipment marked the end of an era–the demise of a national champion and onetime global tech giant.

That said, the move was well received in the markets, with Nokia’s share price climbing from a close of €2.96 (4$) the day before the Microsoft deal became public to trade at €4.88  Thursday. This is still some way below the €64.88 peak reached in the summer of 2000.

Shares in Centrica, the owner of British Gas, drop 1.3% Thursday, continuing Wednesday’s hefty fall of near on 4% as the ramifications of Tuesday’s speech by the leader of the U.K.’s opposition Labour Party, Ed Miliband, over the freezing of gas and electricity prices until the start of 2017 continue to rumble on.

J.P.Morgan Cazenove has today added to the company’s woe by downgrading its investment recommendation to ‘neutral’ from ‘overweight’, citing the Labour Party’s proposals. “Although there remains uncertainty surrounding the detail of the policies or whether Labour will even win the next election, we believe the risk level in the sector has now substantially increased.”

Centrica said, after Mr. Miliband’s speech, that if energy price controls were imposed, it wouldn’t be economically viable for it, or any other energy supplier, to continue to operate, much less to meet the sizeable investments required over the next few years.

Shares in Hennes & Mauritz soar over 6% Thursday after the Swedish clothing retailer said sales in China had been particularly strong in its third quarter, as it reported net profit rose 22% on the year.

Net profit rose to 4.43 billion Swedish kronor ($690 million) in the third quarter, from SEK3.62 billion last year. Analysts had expected a net profit of SEK4.14 billion.

This is a good quarter for H&M, said Citigroup, and full year consensus pretax profit forecasts are expected to rise by close to 2% to around SEK22.8 billion.

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Uh-oh! Investors face more uncertainty

S&P 500 11:40am

Click chart for more markets data.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) More uncertainty. That's what investors will be faced with for the next few months. And we all know how much the market hates uncertainty.

The biggest questions for Wall Street?

When will the Federal Reserve finally begin to cut back on its $85 billion a month bond-buying program?

Will the U.S. government shut down on October 1st? Will the U.S. government default on its debt?

And what will corporate earnings look like next month?

Click here for more on stocks, bond, currencies and commodities

Investors have been able to breathe a sigh of relief lately since two big concerns are no longer as pressing. The threat of a U.S. strike in Syria no longer appears imminent. And the Fed pleasantly surprised the market Wednesday by deciding to hold off on tapering its quantitative easing program.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both rose to record highs this week.

But the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq barely budged Friday.

iPhone fumbles? The lines may have been long for Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500)'s newest iPhones, but investors aren't racing to buy up Apple's stock. It's down more than 33% over the past year, and as sales for the latest iteration of the iPhone kicked off in stores in the U.S., China and seven other countries Friday, Apple's stock moved up just slightly. Investors are hoping the phones are a hit.

One trader on StockTwits thinks the long lines might actually mean that there's room for the stock to run: "$AAPL Being accumulated like Chess rivals pieces by Kasparov, (despite mkt sell off)," said Bizfinder But another trader isn't so sure: "$AAPL Just gonna assume that a 'positive surprise' is not possible now and that the good news has been baked in for the weekend," wrote jarym.

Darden Restaurants (DRI, Fortune 500), which operates the Olive Garden and Red Lobster chains, reported weaker-than-expected sales and profits. Darden also said it's planning workforce reductions. The stock slipped more than 5%. One trader suggested this could be a bad sign for the economy. Consumers may be pulling back.

"Olive Garden used to be the go-to chain for the middle class. Wh! at's happened? Red Lobster SSS also down 5.2%. No splurging. $DRI," said TraceyRyniec.

The all-time high club: A slew of companies hit all-time highs, including Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500), and Facebook (FB).

Priceline's (PCLN) stock continued to rise as well. It appeared set to finish above $1,000 a share for the second straight day..

Two IPOs off like rockets: It was a great day for companies with incendiary themed names to debut.

Shares of ad buying platform Rocket Fuel (FUEL) nearly doubled on their first day of trading while cybersecurity firm FireEye's (FEYE) shares more than doubled.

European markets and Asian markets were mixed. To top of page

Is Disney Stock Undervalued at Current Prices?

With shares of Disney (NYSE:DIS) trading around $60, is DIS an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Disney is a diversified worldwide entertainment company. The company operates in five business segments: media networks, parks and resorts, studio entertainment, consumer products, and interactive. Disney offers entertainment that sends smiles to consumers across a range of countries around the world. Its movies and shows, theme parks, and products have remained a main attraction for many years and will continue well into the future.

Just recently, Disney has managed to beat Wall Street's expectations of earnings despite taking a massive hit on a floundering Lone Ranger movie. For the quarter the company estimated a 36 percent loss in operating revenue due to the film, and projects a loss on the film of $160 to $190 million in the fourth quarter.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Mixed

Disney stock has been exploding higher, in recent years. The stock is currently breaking down from a consolidation near highs so it may need some time to recover. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Disney is trading between its key averages which signal neutral price action in the near-term.

DIS

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Disney options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Disney Options

22.85%

50%

49%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

September Options

Steep

Average

October Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Disney’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Disney look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

0.00%

31.75%

-3.75%

17.34%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

4.42%

9.61%

5.21%

3.42%

Earnings Reaction

-1.70%

-0.12%

0.42%

-5.95%

Disney has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have not been pleased with Disney’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Disney stock done relative to its peers Dreamworks (NASDAQ:DWA), Time Warner (NYSE:TWX), Twenty-First Century Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA), and sector?

Disney

Dreamworks

Time Warner

Twenty-First Century Fox

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

22.04%

72.06%

26.70%

41.50%

33.79%

Disney has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Disney is a global media company that provides entertainment to consumers around the world. Investors have not been pleased by a recent earnings release. The stock has been exploding higher — however, it recently broke below a consolidation range so it may need time to recover. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been rising but investors have grown to expect more from the company. Relative to its peers and sector, Disney has been a weak year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what Disney does this coming quarter.

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Senate Introduces Lifetime Income Disclosure Act

Taking a cue from the Department of Labor, a bipartisan group of senators introduced a bill Wednesday that would allow workers in retirement plans to receive an annual statement of how their lump-sum savings translate into a lifetime stream of monthly income.

The Lifetime Income Disclosure Act was introduced by Sens. Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., Christopher Murphy, D-Conn., Tim Scott, R-S.C., Bill Nelson, D-Fla. and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.

The companion bill, H.R. 2171, was previously introduced in the House by Reps. Rush Holt, D-N.J., Tom Petri, R-Wis., Ron Kind, D-Wis. and Dave Reichert, R-Wash.

In early May, DOL’s Employee Benefits Security Administration announced that it was seeking public input on a proposed rule on lifetime income illustrations given to participants in defined contribution plans, such as 401(k) and 403(b) plans.

“We are looking for the best ideas on how to show people what their lump-sum retirement savings look like when they are spread out over all the years of retirement,” said Phyllis Borzi, assistant secretary of Labor for EBSA.

The American Council of Life Insurers issued a statement saying that the “vital” lump-sum information “would make it easier for workers to understand how their savings will address their month-to-month living expenses.”

The legislation “represents a major step forward in helping workers address their retirement security needs,” ACLI said. “Taken together, the Lifetime Income Disclosure Act and the DOL draft proposal show there is tremendous momentum behind efforts to give retirement plan participants a leg up in their retirement planning.”

-----

Check out DOL Seeks Input on Lifetime Income Illustrations Plan on AdvisorOne.

Friday, January 23, 2015

Maintain investment discipline to ensure superior returns

At the time of its IPO, Sobha Developers reserved a quota of 10 per cent of the total equity for its employees. Incentives and benefits upto Rs 50,000 were given per employee to participate in the company's IPO where Rs 56 crore worth of shares were reserved for them.

Explaining its investment initiatives, JC Sharma, Vice Chairman & MD, Sobha Developers explained, "As and when the Budget comes in February, we ensure that all our employees are communicated with the kind of savings and what kind of instruments they should take to ensure that they can invest wisely on those schemes and save tax."

Also, given that the company is primarily into real estate, employees are given the maximum possible discount to buy a Sobha home.

An audience poll conducted by CNBC-TV18 suggested that almost 50 per cent of the employees are somewhat comfortable with stock markets or mutual funds. But an equal number said they are not at all comfortable while a minuscule 8 per cent said they are very comfortable.

Most people said they have most of the money still finding its way to traditional bank fixed deposit.  A mere 4 per cent invests in gold ETFs, which is in contrast with a whole lot of people interviewed so far, who are now beginning to favour gold ETFs.

Also, 16 per cent of people favour insurance investments. Currently, about 44 percent of people invest under one lakh, which ideally qualifies only a stack saving. The active wealth creation between Rs 1-3 lakh surplus annually is done by about 40 per cent and the real aggressive investors are about 8 percent.

CNBC-TV18's expert panel consisting Ambareesh Baliga, Independent Analyst and Uday Dhoot, Deputy CEO, International, Money Matters, talk to Sobha employees to solve their investment queries.

Below is the edited transcript of the interview with CNBC-TV18.

Q: If you look at India as a whole, things seem to be on the mend. There is some amount of liquidity that is also coming in maybe because of global sources. Do you see the return of retail investors, therefore, into the equity market?

Baliga: I do see the return of retail investors but I don't expect them to come back in droves tomorrow just because things have changed. After this four year of bearish stage we have been in, it will take a while for these retail investors to come back.

Unless they see that the market holding up at higher levels, I don't expect them to come back so soon. But hopefully, if things look better, I suppose in the next 4-6 months, you should see retail investors back.

Q: If retail investors are not participating in the equity market, there are still investments that are being done. A lot of it would be finding its way into mutual funds or other products, can you take us through the other gamut of products that are available besides the very obvious choices that people are making?

Dhoot: If you look at any investor in India, typically it starts with tax saving. So when it is tax saving, the traditional ways are first you go in for insurance, you go for PPF etc but most of the people are basically stuck in insurance. There is a lot of money which goes in insurance. The recent RBI report said in the last few years, investor interest is more towards physical assets by way of real estate, by way of gold and not necessarily towards financial assets.

Retail investors typically go in when the party is getting over and then get stuck and move along. But I think what people need to do is to know one's needs and then begin financial planning in terms of identifying what is the right product.

Q: Most investors following the traditional method of investment and choose to buy gold physically than invest in ETFs. Do you advise that ETF is the best form or to buy it in the physical form?

Dhoot: In India, gold has a lot of traditional value apart from the investment value that we have been talking about. Indians have been investing in gold for ages. But from purely an investment perspective, gold, for us, is nothing but like insurance in your portfolio. When will gold do well? Gold will do well when everything else around you is not doing so well.

Gold, otherwise, gives you no regular returns. There is no interest or dividend coming from gold. So, gold is purely a hedge against uncertainty. Now look at traditional investments, we have all been buying physical gold now. If you look at today's investments, you can buy gold through something called ETF, which is nothing but an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), typically a unit of that gold ETF approximates to around 1 gram of gold.

You can buy even if you do not have a demat and trading account. You can buy gold through mutual funds as well by way of gold savings fund. Typically, these gold savings fund, in turn, invest in gold ETFs. In this way, you get exposure to gold from that. The good part about this gold is that all of this gold is backed by actual gold in banks. So, it is a fairly safe way of investing in gold.

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Thursday, January 22, 2015

3 Things to Watch When Corning Reports

Get ready, Corning (NYSE: GLW  ) shareholders! Your company reports earnings on Tuesday, July 30.

Considering the incredible reach and size of this 163-year-old, $22.5 billion business, there will be plenty of new information for all of us to digest to help determine whether Corning is worth our hard-earned investing dollars.

To help get you started, Fool contributor Steve Symington offers three things you should watch with Corning's earnings announcement in the video below, including how to see whether the company's turnaround is progressing, any updates regarding its exciting new products, and Corning's efforts to return capital to shareholders.

What do you think? Please watch the video below to get Steve's full take, then let us know whether there's anything else you're watching for in Corning's earnings.

Of course, investors would be wise to remember  dividend stocks like Corning can make you rich. It's as simple as that. While they don't garner the notoriety of high-flying growth stocks, they're also less likely to crash and burn.

And over the long term, the compounding effect of the quarterly payouts, as well as their growth, adds up faster than most investors imagine. With this in mind, our analysts sat down to identify the absolute best of the best when it comes to rock-solid dividend stocks, drawing up a list in this free report of the only nine that fit the bill. To discover the identities of these companies before the rest of the market catches on, you can download this valuable free report by simply clicking here now.

 

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Tim Cook's Future Riches Will Depend on Apple Stock Performance

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) stockholders, rejoice!

On Friday, Apple's board of directors amended CEO Tim Cook's equity bonus compensation package to now be dependent on the company's stock performance. Before the revision, Tim Cook received restricted stock units after a specified period of time, regardless of how the Apple's stock performed relative to its S&P 500's constituents.

The takeaway here is that Apple investors should consider this to be the dawn of a new era for how it compensates executives. Additionally, it's officially in Cook's best interest for Apple's stock to outperform.  

The rule of thirds
Cook's original 1 million restricted stock units will still vest over a 10-year period, but now 800,000 units will be directly tied to Apple's stock performance. Of those 800,000 units, a maximum of 80,000 units can be awarded to Cook each year. For Cook to earn the entire 80,000 units allotted yearly, Apple's stock performance must rank in the in the top third of all S&P 500 companies. Ultimately, Apple's stock performance will be measured on a three-year rolling time horizon based on previous vesting dates, but in the beginning, performance will be measured on either one- or two-year time horizons until August 2016.

If Apple's stock performance ranks in the middle-third compared to its S&P 500 constituents during a specified period, Cook loses 25% of his yearly award. For Cook to lose 50% of his award, Apple's stock performance must rank in the lower-third compared to its peers.

Aligning interests
Not only did Tim Cook request this change in compensation, he refused to take an upside performance multiplier, which Apple's board of directors believes should be part of a performance-based compensation package. With this move, Cook has better aligned his own interests with that of individual shareholders, which do not have the opportunity to be gifted additional shares if Apple's stock outperforms. It's becoming increasingly clear that Apple is transforming itself into a more shareholder-centric company.

The titans of tech
It's incredible to think just how much of our digital and technological lives are almost entirely shaped and molded by just a handful of companies. Find out "Who Will Win the War Between the 5 Biggest Tech Stocks?" in The Motley Fool's latest free report, which details the knock-down, drag-out battle being waged by the five kings of tech. Click here to keep reading.

Should Google and Facebook Be Paying You?

There are a variety of ways in which information is shared online, and the specifics of each plays a major role in how consumers feel about the companies with which they share. In a recent post on LinkedIn, contributor David Sable explores three structures and poses the question of whether Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) should be sharing the revenue it generates by collecting our data. The same could be asked of Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) , begging the question of whether the very nature of online sharing must change.

In the video below, Fool.com contributor Doug Ehrman discusses Sable's three sharing paradigms and looks at what really goes on between Google, Facebook, and the users who rely on each.

It's more important than ever to understand each piece of Google's sprawling empire. In The Motley Fool's new premium research report on Google, we break down the risks and potential rewards for Google investors. Simply click here now to unlock your copy of this invaluable resource.

Cruise Investors Smell a Fire Sale

The fire aboard Royal Caribbean's (NYSE: RCL  ) Grandeur of the Seas was put out within two hours, but not before disrupting the travel plans of passengers on board and those set to board the ship this Friday. Both sailings have been nixed, and even though Royal Caribbean is doing things right by issuing refunds and discounts on future sailings, this is going to be a big hit for the cruise industry.

Royal Caribbean, NCL (NYSE: NCL  ) , and ship spa services provider Steiner Leisure (NASDAQ: STNR  ) all hit new 52-week highs earlier this month. Unlike Carnival (NYSE: CCL  ) -- which has been sluggish in light of several mishaps at sea since last year -- everyone seemed to view the negative instances as Carnival-specific events. Now Royal Caribbean's fire may lead folks to question booking on any cruise line in the near future.

In this video, longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz -- who experienced a kitchen fire aboard the QE2 and whose parents suffered a nixed Hawaiian cruise when the S.S. Independence ceased operations several years ago -- takes a look at the reputation problems that the industry may experience in light of Monday's fire.

Around the world
Profiting from our increasingly global economy can be as easy as investing in your own backyard. The Motley Fool's free report "3 American Companies Set to Dominate the World" shows you how. Click here to get your free copy before it's gone.

Monday, January 19, 2015

Is It Finally Time to Buy a House?

According to the most recent data, foreclosure activity in the U.S. is at its lowest level since July 2006. All foreclosure-related metrics dropped in September, including the number of homes repossessed, the number of properties set for foreclosure auctions, and the number of default notices issued.

Source: flickr user Nick Bastian.

While this is definitely a good sign, it doesn't necessarily mean that home prices are going to continue on their upward trajectory. Rather, it does mean that the housing market is returning to a "healthy" state. But what does that mean to you?

The data looks great
Foreclosure activity in the U.S. is now at an eight-year low. According to RealtyTrac, there were 106,866 foreclosure filings across the country, which is 8.6% less than in August, and represents a year-over-year drop of 18.6%.

In fact, overall foreclosure activity, which includes foreclosure notices, auctions, and repossessions, is now back down to pre-bubble levels, according to the report. The number of lender-repossessed homes in September dropped by 13% from the month before, default notices given to homeowners dropped by nearly 10%, and the number of homes set for foreclosure auctions dropped by 5.5%.

Why home prices may actually cool off now
Despite this good news, home prices aren't necessarily going to continue on their upward trajectory. Since bottoming in early 2012, U.S. home prices have gained nearly 25% in value, and have actually pulled back a little bit recently.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 Chart

The foreclosure market was one of the big reasons for these gains. Generally, foreclosed homes sell for lower prices than traditionally sold homes. In fact, RealtyTrac also reports that the median sales price for a foreclosed home was 36% less than that of non-distressed sales. As foreclosures have been gradually working their way out of the market, home prices have naturally risen faster than they normally would, simply because there are fewer foreclosures holding the average price down.

There are other factors that could drive home prices a little lower in the short term. A big one is the seasonality of the housing market. Generally, summer is the peak selling time for homes, as kids are out of school, and it's simply more convenient to move. With summer ending, selling activity is probably going to cool off considerably.

Thanks to higher prices, activity may cool off even more this year than in most years. The recent mortgage application data shows purchase applications are actually 4% lower than they were at this time last year. The inventory of existing homes on the market has actually risen by about 24% in 2014 as sellers try to take advantage of higher prices, while the rate of sales has increased by just about 4%. The laws of supply and demand tell us that high inventory plus lower demand means prices are likely to drop a little bit.

US Existing Home Inventory Chart

What a healthy market looks like, and what it means to homebuyers
In a healthy market, real estate gradually appreciates by a low single-digit percentage. Gains like we saw before the market collapsed and the declines that resulted from the bubble bursting are not healthy.

Take a look at the chart below, which tracks U.S. home prices since 1991. The market of the 1990s was pretty healthy. The market of the past decade or so has not been healthy.

US House Price Index Chart

We may see a small drop in price as the market becomes healthy again as prices adjust to normal supply and demand dynamics again. However, without a massive amount of foreclosure activity, there should be much less volatility in the housing market going forward. In other words, if you have been putting off buying a home, you can now buy with a little more confidence.

Smart homebuyers take advantage of all of the tax "loopholes" 
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Size and Scale of Affiliated Managers' Operations Will Increase

In this article, let's take a look at Affiliated Managers Group Inc. (AMG), an $11.14 billion market cap company, which is asset management company with equity investments in a group of boutique investment management firms or Affiliates.

Great growth

We expect the firm to continue increasing its operations so we expect to double the growth rate, starting this year and also the next year. Some things that contribute to this are its global distribution network and the well-known product portfolio, which include some products with good return profiles, such as the global and international equities and alternative assets.

So what we are waiting to have is solid increases in revenue and profitability. Also, a free cash flow expanding from $750 million to more than $1 billion in the next five years is expected. Considering this and a $1.25 billion bank facility, the company can invest more or less $300 million per year into new affiliates. Further, the firm continues to focus on returning value to shareholders via share repurchases..

Some deals

The company in search of a better position in emerging and developing markets, it invested in firms like Harding Loevner, Value Partners (Trades, Portfolio) Group, and Trilogy Global Advisors. Since the financial crises, it has announced 12 deals of about $3 billion.

Risks

We think that revenue and profitability could be hurt by market movements or changes in fund flows. Further, due to its exposure to markets outside the U.S., some other risks arise like economic or political risks.

Revenues, margins and profitability

Looking at profitability, revenues increased by 17.59% and led earnings per share increased in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago ($1.77 vs $1.18). During the past fiscal year, the company increased its bottom line. It earned $6.49 versus $3.27 in the prior year. This year, Wall Street expects an improvement in earnings ($11.88 versus $6.49). The net income increased by 54.5% when compared to the same quarter one year ago, rising from $64.7 million to $100.0 million.

Finally, let´s compare the best measure of performance for a firm's management: the return on equity. The ROE is useful for comparing the profitability of a company to that of other firms in the same industry.

Ticker

Company

ROE (%)

AMG

Affiliated Managers

18.18

KKR

KKR & Co.

22.88

SEIC

SEI Investments Company

24.79

LM

Legg Mason Inc

6.53

TROW

T. Rowe Price Group Inc

24.36

IVZ

Invesco Ltd

11.66

 

Industry Median

7.65

The company has a current ROE of 18.18% which is higher than the industry median and the ones exhibited by Legg Mason (LM) and Invesco (IVZ). In general, analysts consider ROE ratios in the 15-20% range as representing attractive levels for investment. So for investors looking those levels or more, KKR & Co. (KKR), SEI Investments (SEIC) and T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW) could be the option. It is very important to understand this metric before investing and it is important to look at the trend in ROE over time.

1412340714794.png

Relative Valuation

In terms of valuation, the stock sells at a trailing P/E of 27.8x, trading at a premium compared to an average of 19.3x for the industry. To use another metric, its price-to-book ratio of 4.30x indicates a premium versus the industry average of 1.04x while the price-to-sales ratio of 4.80x is below the industry average of 7.21x.

As we can see in the next chart, the stock price has an upward trend in the five-year period.

1412340694342.png

Final comment

We feel very comfortable with the company´s prospects due to its model which will provide a revenue growth, having value and growth investment styles, as well as fixed-income and alternative investments.

Moreover, the P/B Ratio is close to a 1-year low of 4.07 and the return on capital that significantly exceeds the industry average make me feel bullish on this stock.

Hedge fund guru George Soros (Trades, Portfolio) added this stock to his portfolios in the second quarter of 2014 as well as RS Investment Management (Trades, Portfolio).

Disclosure: Omar Venerio holds no position in any stocks mentioned

Also check out: Value Partners Undervalued Stocks Value Partners Top Growth Companies Value Partners High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Value Partners keeps buying George Soros Undervalued Stocks George Soros Top Growth Companies George Soros High Yield stocks, and Stocks that George Soros keeps buying RS Investment Manageme Undervalued Stocks RS Investment Manageme Top Growth Companies RS Investment Manageme High Yield stocks, and Stocks that RS Investment Manageme keeps buyingAbout the author:ovenerioWe provide independent fundamental research and hedge fund and insider trading focused investigation.

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Walmart Spokesman Quits Over Lie on Resume

Casey Rogers/Walmart via APWalmart chief communications officer David Tovar resigned his post last week. Walmart Stores' chief spokesman David Tovar resigned after the company allegedly found that he had lied about his academic record in his resume, Bloomberg reported, citing a person familiar with the matter. While conducting a due-diligence screening, Walmart (WMT) discovered that Tovar had lied about receiving a bachelor of arts degree from the University of Delaware in 1996, the report said. An academic-records official from the University of Delaware confirmed to Bloomberg that Tovar never received the diploma. Tovar, who announced his resignation last week, couldn't be reached by phone and didn't respond to an email seeking comment. Walmart was also not immediately available for comment outside regular U.S. business hours. More from Reuters
•Producer Prices Unchanged as Inflation Remains Tame •Ali Who? Most Americans Clueless About China's Alibaba •Industrial Production Slips on Reduced Vehicle Output

Thursday, January 15, 2015

5 things you need to know about Iraq right now

Platts

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Investors were keeping calm over Iraq Friday as President Barack Obama signaled the U.S. won't take immediate military action to help the Iraqi army respond to attacks by Sunni militants in the country's north, while Iranian forces joined the Baghdad government's efforts to combat insurgent advances.

Financial markets are seeing only modest fallout from the conflict, though strategists say investors should be braced for potential volatility in oil prices. Here's what you need to know:

What is happening?

Brent surges

Obama said he would review military options "in the days ahead" but that any military response must be "careful." He pressed Iraq Prime Minister Kamal al-Maliki to take steps to better balance political power between Shiites and Sunnis.

Iran has already jumped to help fellow Shiites in Iraq's government against the threat, deploying Revolutionary Guard units to the country.

Iraq was on the brink of civil war after Kurdish forces took control of Kirkuk, a provincial capital city and oil-production hub in northern Iraq while Sunni militias swept through other cities in the north and threatened Baghdad.

Why is Iraq important?

Iraq is the world's eighth-largest producer of oil and ranks No. 2 in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, behind Saudi Arabia. The country exports around 2.5 million barrels of oil a day. Losing that supply would be quite disruptive and could propel oil prices higher by another $15 to $20 a barrel, analysts say.

"Although the situation is some distance from the oil fields, the reality is that a $20 a barrel spike in crude prices could well prove sufficient to derail the global economic recovery," said Joao Monteiro, an analyst at Valutrades in London.

Iraq's oil production has been on the comeback trail since the height of the Iraq war. Production hit 3.6 million barrels a day in February, its highest level in more than 30 years. It has since fallen back, slipping to 3.3 million barrels a day in May, analysts say.

Iraq's production growth has been a welcome development for oil consumers as Libya struggles to return online amid persistent violence and turmoil. But the fighting casts big doubts over the government's aim to boost output to 4 million barrels a day by the end of this year and to 7 million barrels a day by 2016, note economists at Capital Economics.

What's the threat?

An underlying fear in the oil market is that the fighting will spread to Iraq's main oil-producing areas in the south. Meanwhile, Iraq's biggest refinery at Baijii in the north remains under government control , Iraqi oil minister Abdul Kareem Luaibi said Thursday, according to Reuters. Luaibi said Iraqi crude exports from its southern terminal at Basra were running at an average of 2.6 million to 2.7 million barrels a day on Wednesday.

"The northern oil fields have been taken yet that area of the country was not really active. There had been damaged pipelines due to sabotage," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. "Basra in the south of Iraq seems to be operating normally and any attack on Baghdad may be met with much tougher resistance."

Capital Economics

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Morning Movers: Plug Power Drops on Earnings Miss; Sears Gains on Potential Asset Sale

Stocks ended mixed yesterday. Today, the major indexes all look to be heading lower.

AP

S&P 500 futures have dropped 0.2%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures have dipped 0.1%. Nasdaq Composite futures are off 0.2%.

Macy’s (M) blamed the cold weather for a slide in sales but has risen 1.2% to $58.55 thanks to a better-than-forecast profit of 60 cents a share.

URS Corp. (URS) has plunged 7.1% to $43.85 after its profit of 37 cents a share missed the Street consensus by 30 cents.

Plug Power (PLUG) has dropped 3.7% to $3.94 after it reported a loss of 6 cents a share, missing analyst estimates for a loss of 5 cents.

Sears Holdings (SHLD) has gained 1.6% to $44.15 after it said it could sell its 51% stake in Sears Canada.

Deere (DE) has fallen 1.5% to $92.25 after beating earnings forecasts but lowering its full-year sales guidance.

SodaStream (SODA) has declined 3.6% to $39.65 after it reported a profit of 8 cents a share, ahead of forecasts for 1 cent. It said earnings would grow 3% in 2014.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

How to Organize and File Your Taxes Over a Weekend

Details of a United States Tax Form. Alamy All you need to do your taxes is a little bit of time over one weekend to gather what you need, get organized and file your return. Friday Evening: Collect the Documentation On Friday evening, devote an hour or two to collect the necessary documents. If your documents are scattered, use a checklist to make sure you grab all the important stuff. Here's what most people will need: Last year's tax return. The Social Security number -- or tax ID number, if applicable -- and birthdate for you and everyone in your household. Income information for employees: W2s. Income information for self-employed individuals: W9s, 1099s and Schedule K-1s. Report all income, even if you did not receive a 1099 from a client. Income information from investments: 1099s reflecting interest earned, dividends, retirement funds and son on. Proof of income adjustments: 1098s. Receipts: If you are itemizing, they should be added for health expenses, donations and other key categories. Tip for next tax season: If you had to run around to find these forms and documents or you had to dig through a box of old receipts, now is a good time to create better habits to make tax time less stressful next year. For instance, you can upload your receipts and paper clutter to a cloud-based, accessible-from-anywhere storage system with Shoeboxed. Saturday: Use Software or Take Everything to a Preparer On Saturday, you are ready to fire up tax software or bring your information in to a tax preparer. Which you choose is a matter of personal preference and how complicated your tax situation is. If you do your taxes with the help of a tax software, double- and triple-check all the information you entered. The software will do the math, but it can't tell you if you have typos. The added cost of a tax professional may be worth it if you have your own small business, unique tax situation or simply don't feel comfortable handling this information on your own. It's OK to ask for help. Tip for this season: If you make less than $52,000, you could qualify for free tax help at a Volunteer Income Tax Assistant Program near you. Sunday: Make One Last Check Sunday is time to think about your taxes. Take an hour to carefully review your return and check for errors. If a mistake was made, don't panic. Don't cross your fingers and hope the Internal Revenue Service won't notice, either. Erroneous reporting can trigger an audit, which is stressful for most taxpayers. Instead, take pre-emptive action and file a 1040X form to point out the mistake. This will help you avoid penalties, since you reported the error. Tax season isn't fun, but this plan will make it go more smoothly. And if you invest extra time, you'll set yourself up for a less stressful and faster experience next year.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Consumer confidence rises again in January

Consumer confidence rose in January, reinforcing December's rebound.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 80.7, vs. up from 77.5 in December. The index started at 100 in 1985. The independent business membership and research association's index also showed increasingly optimistic assessments of current and future conditions.

"All in all, confidence appears to be back on track and rising expectations suggest the economy may pick up some momentum in the months ahead," said said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

STOCKS TUESDAY: How markets are doing

The Conference Board's index is based on a monthly survey by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was January 16.

According to the survey, respondents who said business conditions are "good" increased to 21.5% in January from 20.2% in December. People who said business conditions were bad fell slightly, to 22.8%, from 23.2%. And consumers were slightly more optimistic about the job market, with 12.7% saying jobs were plentiful, vs 11.9 percent in December. Still, 32.6% said jobs are hard downs slightly from 32.9%

Looking into the future, consumers were somewhat more muted. Those expecting better business conditions the next six months remained unchanged at 17.4%, but those who thought things would get worse fell to 12.1% from 13.9%.

Because nearly two-thirds of the economy depends on consumer spending, the Conference Board's monthly survey is an important indicator of future economic activity. One hopeful sign: 15.8% of those surveyed expected their incomes to rise in the months ahead, vs. 13.9% in December.

"Given the increased optimism on the part of consumers about future earnings, the momentum behind the stronger consumer spending observed in the fourth quarter of last year looks like it can be maintained in the new year," Wells Fargo senior economist! Mark Vitner said in a letter to clients. He warned, however, that consumer confidence is extremely sensitive to political unrest in Washington -- and the looming fight over raising the federal debt ceiling could rattle consumers next month.

Credit Suisse to junior bankers: Lighten up (a little)

credit suisse bank junior banker

Credit Suisse wants junior bankers in the Americas to cut down on weekend working hours.

LONDON (CNNMoney) Credit Suisse has joined the ranks of investment banks attempting to lighten the load for junior staff as the industry faces scrutiny over grueling working conditions.

The internal memo sent Monday and obtained by CNNMoney said analysts and associate level staff should not be in the office from 6 p.m. Friday to 10 a.m. Sunday unless they are working on a live deal.

A live deal is one "that is actively being put together," according to the bank. The number of such deals underway at any time fluctuates.

The guidance, which applies to staff in the Americas, was issued by the global head of investment banking Jim Amine.

Amine said junior bankers should not be called in for weekend work on non-live deals without management approval.

The working policy also said that junior staff are "expected to reply to e-mails in a timely manner throughout the weekend."

Several investment banks have moved to relax working conditions for junior staff following the death of a former Bank of America intern in London last year.

An inquest into the death of the 21-year old German, Moritz Erhardt, revealed a culture of heavy workloads for junior investment bankers.

The inquest found that Erhardt, who suffered from epilepsy, died of natural causes, though fatigue could have been a factor.

Why big banks are too big to jail   Why big banks are too big to jail

This week, Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) recommended that its junior staff take at leas! t 4 weekend days off a month. In October, Goldman Sachs (GSPRC) also encouraged its junior bankers to take weekends off.

Goldman's Zurich office was investigated in 2013 by Swiss labor authorities after a complaint lodged by an employee group suggested the firm had run afoul of strict local labor laws related to tracking workers' hours. To top of page

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Treasurys hold gains after TIPS auction

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices gained on Thursday after a strong auction of $13 billion in inflation-protected securities and a mixed round of economic data.

The benchmark 10-year note (10_YEAR) yield, which rises as prices fall, traded down 1.5 basis point on the day at 2.789%, after climbing as high as 2.841% in morning trade.

The 5-year note (5_YEAR) yield fell 1 basis point to 1.370%, and the 30-year bond (30_YEAR)  yield traded down 2.5 basis points at 3.890%.

Enlarge Image

Ten-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, yielded 0.574%, down about 3 basis points on the day, after a sale of the debt, according to Tradeweb. TIPS, unlike nominal Treasurys, protect against inflation by increasing principal alongside rising costs, though the sector has underperformed this year as inflation remains muted.

However, the auction saw strong demand Thursday, with the debt selling at 0.560%, well below where the broader market was trading at the time. The ratio of bids to the amount of debt sold was 2.59 times, higher than the average of 2.55 times in the last six sales. Direct bidders, which include domestic money managers, purchased a relatively large share of the debt, taking down 21.5% of the notes, compared to a recent average of 8.1%. Indirect bidders, including foreign central banks that often buy real yields, took down another 46.7%, compared to the recent average of 53.5%.

The recent move higher in TIPS yields helped set up the auction for a strong result, according to Gemma Wright-Casparius, senior portfolio manager at Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities Funds. "Forward real yields have normalized toward pre-crisis levels. Much of that has to do with the positive slope of the yield curve," she said.

Nomura Securities gave the auction a grade of A+.

Treasurys had bounced around in morning trading as mixed economic data were released. Weekly jobless claims, a gauge of people applying for unemployment benefits, dropped by the most in nearly three months, beating Wall Street expectations. Claims fell by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted rate of 323,000 last week. However, the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index slowed to 6.5 in November from 19.8 in October, missing economists' expectations of 14.5.

Treasurys weakened after the report on jobless claims but recovered after the Philly Fed data. Investors also digested the Markit manufacturing PMI index, which rose to 54.3 in November from 51.8 in October, as well as a 0.2% drop in wholesale prices.

Click to Play China's baby bump to open investment opportunities

The rising middle class in China is welcoming the government's easing of the one-child policy. Shao Yu of Oriental Securities tells the WSJ's Wei Gu what sectors of the economy will get a boost from the potential baby boomlet.

The yield differential between shorter-term and longer-term Treasurys has widened in recent days in what's known as a steepening yield curve. The gap between the 5-year note yield and the 10-year note yield hit its highest level in over two years on Wednesday at 1.43 percentage points, although it retreated from those highs Thursday, according to Tradeweb.

The yield curve steepened Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting in October disclosed discussion among Fed officials about how to shift the market's focus from its asset purchase program to short-term rates, which are likely to remain low well into the future. "The markets were setting up for thinking that [the Fed] will start tapering sooner, but they'll push out the guidance as low and long as possible to pull the markets back from the ledge," said Michael Collins, senior investment officer at Prudential Fixed Income.

Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James: Stock market trend remains up

market Jeffrey D. Saut

“The Boys Are Back in Town”

Guess who just got back today?

Them wild-eyed boys that had been away

Haven't changed, haven't much to say

But man, I still think them cats are crazy

They were asking if you were around

How you was, where you could be found

Told them you were living downtown

Driving all the old men crazy

The boys are back in town

The boys are back in town

... Thin Lizzy (1976)

The boys are indeed back in town as Washington D.C. opened its doors for business as usual last week following a contentious debt ceiling debate and a 16-day shutdown of the government. This outcome had been anticipated in these letters for often-stated reasons, and just like when the ”fiscal cliff” was averted, I now expect the media to turn its focus to the next Armageddon. While the self-inflicted crisis took the amateurish rollout of Obamacare out of the headlines, it will likely have a de minimis effect on the economy (maybe shave 0.03 – 0.04% off of the official GDP figures). The good news is that except for this week's delayed September employment report, I doubt investors will pay much attention to any of the other economic reports between now and Christmas due to the recent Beltway consternations and their expectation about the potential impact on the economy.

As for the impact on the stock market, it was profound with the S&P 500 (SPX/1744.50), the mid-cap S&P 400, and the small-cap Russell 2000 trading to new all-time highs. While there were some upside non-confirmations (most notably the D-J Industrial Average), the majority of indications confirmed the move higher. For example, the Advance/Decline Line climbed to a new bull market high, the Selling Pressure Index fell to a new reaction low, the short-term “buy signal” I spoke of on October 15th remains in force (when the 14-day Stochastic crossed above its moving average), the Short-Term Trading Index confirms that “buy signal,” the number of new highs on the NYSE expanded, and the list goes on. Such metrics caused the “godfather of technical analysis,” namely Ralph Acampora, t! o abandon his bearish “call” of last summer. Recall that like me, Ralph was looking for a short/intermediate-term stock market peak in the mid-July through mid-August timeframe. At the time I was expecting a decline of roughly 10%. And, we were about halfway into that 10% pullback when Vladimir Putin pulled our President out of a tight spot with Putin's Syrian solution. At that point I mainly gave up on my downside “call” and recommended recommitting 15% of the cash that was raised in June. Since then, while the equity markets have been choppy, they have refused to surrender much ground. As stated in last Thursday's Morning Tack, “With the debt ceiling debates behind us, the markets can focus on earnings, economics, and the Federal Reserve.” To that trifecta, the story is pretty good.

On the earnings front, the bottom up operating earnings estimate for the SPX is currently $107.58, leaving the SPX's P/E ratio at almost 16x. Next year's estimate is $121.66. If the SPX continues to trade at that P/E multiple it renders a price target of 1946. Moreover, so far of the 190 companies that have reported earnings, 60.5% of those companies have beaten estimates and 50.9% have beaten revenue estimates. As far as economics, as stated the numbers are probably going to be ignored for a few months because of the shutdown. However, I believe GDP growth will accelerate to 3% in 2014 driven by a capital expenditure cycle because companies like GM are running their plants flat out 24/7 and the equipment is wearing out. Finally, with Janet Yellen at the helm of the Fed it should be steady as you go. That implies no tapering and plenty of liquidity. And, a number of other things are going right in this country.

While the politicians do not want to broadcast it, the latest monthly CBO report shows tax revenues up 13% year/year and individual income tax payments up an amazing 15.8%. Further, payroll taxes are better by 11.6%, all of which have cut the CBO's 2013 estimate of the deficit! to $642 ! billion. Part of the reason for that deficit reduction is because median family annual incomes have stabilized for the first time since the recession to an inflation-adjusted $51,017. Another reason is that the U.S. is on track to overtake Russia as the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas. Of course the reason for that energy leap is the technologies of fracking and horizontal drilling. Interestingly, the research firm IHS Global Insights notes fracking has added the equivalent of $1,200 to real household disposable income on average in 2012 and estimates that figure will grow to $3,500 by 2025. Further, fracking added $283 billion to economic growth last year and is expected to add $533 billion in 2025 with an attendant federal/state tax payment of $138 billion. The relative resulting “cheap” energy estimates are causing foreign companies to invest, or are planning to invest, billions of dollars in plants that would churn out chemicals, fertilizers, plastics, metals, etc. Obviously, the American Industrial Renaissance (AIR) is happening. A few of the ways to participate in this renaissance is through Rich Bernstein and either of the mutual funds he manages for Eaton Vance, Richard Bernstein Equity Strategy Fund (ERBAX/$13.62) and the Richard Bernstein All Asset Strategy Fund (EARAX/$12.24). As for a pure play (100%) on AIR, there is First Trust's Richard Bernstein TS American Industrial Renaissance ETF (FWRVLX/$10.17).

Another theme we have embraced for the past two years has been the recovery in housing. Recently many investors have cooled on this theme due to the rise in mortgage rates. However, mortgage rates have declined over the past few weeks. A second derivative way to get at the burgeoning housing theme is via Strong Buy-rated Weyerhaeuser (WY/$30.11). As our fundamental analyst writes in the commentary for our Analysts' Current Favorites product, released earlier today:

We believe: 1) the embedded value of Weyerhaeuser's homebuilding platform is underappreciate! d relativ! e to other public builder valuations (most notably, the 17,700 lots it controls in California); 2) the recent underperformance of WY shares has created a buying opportunity; and 3) in the context of our REIT coverage, there are relatively few opportunities to find similar long-term earnings/cash flow growth stories. In our view, Weyerhaeuser's homebuilding platform (one of the 20 largest in the country), significant wood products business, and immense timberland portfolio position it as a compelling alternative to pure-play homebuilders in this housing recovery. Weyerhaeuser is targeting a payout of 75% of FAD over the cycle and is well positioned to raise its dividend as the housing recovery gains momentum. The company has already boosted its dividend by 33% since October (WY shares currently yield ~3%).

The call for this week: According to the weight of the evidence, the primary stock market trend remains “up!” Indeed, last Thursday's gain, while not a 90% Upside Day, was indeed an 80% Upside Day as the market breadth, and total points gained, were decidedly positive. Manifestly, since 1940 there have only been 45 other days when 80% of issues and volume were positive and the SPX closed at a new 52-week high (like happened last week). Of those, only seven occurred two days in a row. According to the must have SentimenTrader folks, “To get more precedents, let's look for any time that both the percentage of up issues and volume were both above 75%, with the last one occurring on a day the S&P closed at a new high. In 73 years, there have been 17 precedents. A week later, there were only three negative returns, and two of those were less than -0.5%. Three months later, there was essentially only one negative return, as was the case six months later was well. Average returns were about double what a random return was during the study period.” Verily, the only current negatives are the short-term overbought condition and the upside non-confirmations.

Jeffrey D. Saut is managing! director! at Raymond James & Associates. This commentary originally appeared on the firm's website. Like what yo

Friday, January 9, 2015

No, Zombies Are Not Dead Money… Billions of Dollars

If there is a fad or a trend then you know there is serious money to be made from it. Zombies have grown and grown in popularity over the last decade, and the Season 4 premiere of The Walking Dead was a another record-setter. AMC Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: AMCX) has released its figures showing that the series had the highest ratings of any episode in series history.

It was just about two years ago that 24/7 Wall St. evaluated what zombies meant in economic spending to the real world economy and that was a figure of about $5 billion. It would be much more today as you will see by these figures and then when you add on even more Resident Evil franchise sales, TV sales, books, costumes from two more Halloweens and more.

A whopping 16.1 million total viewers watched The Walking Dead’s first episode of season four. Some 10.4 million of those were adults aged 18 to 49. This premiere outperformed all programs including primetime NFL football. It was also said that if you count a time-shifted playback, the fourth season premiere should exceed 20 million viewers.

The previous record for an episode of The Walking Dead was 12.4 million total viewers and 8.1 million viewers 18-49 for the season three finale. Following the 9 pm premiere of The Walking Dead, AMC premiered the third season of Talking Dead at 10 pm, it became the most viewed premiere in series history with 5.1 million viewers, including 3.3 million adults aged 18-49.

AMC President Charlie Collier’s quote even included the snippet, “the dead have never been more alive." He might have well said, “Cha-Ching!”

Will the FOMC Action Have a Lasting Impact?

The markets initial reaction to the FOMC decision was clear, but MoneyShow's Jim Jubak says investors now must try and decide whether it will have a lasting impact.

For the week ahead, the big question is going to be what the market reaction is in slightly longer term to the fed's decision not to begin a taper on September 18. The immediate reaction was pretty clear. The market was surprised. Stocks rally S&P hit an all-time high, bond yields went down, as bond prices went up, so bonds that were close to the ten-year yield before this, like on September 6 or so, was all the way up to 3.05. Before this, we were down to 2.87, or even lower than that. A big move away from the 3% danger zone. The dollar is weaker today, gold is up. This is the immediate reaction.

The question is going forward, "What happens?" A lot of that depends on how quickly people go from being kind of elated that the fed was going to continue to pump the whole $85,000,000,000 into the market that they've been pumping in each month, to a situation where people start to worry about the US budget, and the deadlock over that, and the possibility we're going to shut down the government, the battle over the debt ceiling. How quickly do we shift gears? I can make an argument at this point either way, so it's going to be-I mean, I don't know, so I'm telling you that either we can go to a situation where people say, "Oh S&P all-time high, so I'm going to take profits," and I think that would be one legitimate reaction to this sort of fiscal uncertainty coming up, or you can say, "Oh, okay, so we're off and running. I really don't believe that those people in congress are really as dumb as they want, or that the shutdown is going to be as meaningful as it could be, in just a few days. It's really a bump and I'm going to go with the cash."

I think those are our two possibilities at this point. It's very hard, at this point, to guess. My basic feeling, in terms of risk-reward, is I'd probably take profits here because we are at an all-time high and I really don't like the risk of fiscal action in congress, but I can't guarantee us the way this market is going to go. I think that's the way the balance of risk-reward puts you, but as we say, we'll see in the week ahead.

This is Jim Jubak for the Moneyshow.com Video Network.

Thursday, January 8, 2015

SIP by SIP take big leap

As a rational investor, we always want to invest in those instruments from where we get maximum returns with minimum risk. Unfortunately there is no such instrument available in the world, that is why we get attracted to risky instrument like equity to get maximum returns.

Actually to earn maximum returns with maximum risk doesn�t mean you win all the time and earn that return.  As risk attached with such an instrument is risk of default, which is the biggest risk as compared to the returns we earned.

So now what is the solution to this problem?  Does it mean that we should avoid such good return instruments?

Hold on��I know we all are anxious to know the answer!

Of course it is not a good idea to avoid such risk associated instruments because ultimately they may  give good returns.

Hence to over come this situation and get the best returns, you  can invest in such instruments by the way of SIP (Systematic Investment Plans) in Mutual Funds. It does not mean that with  SIP in Mutual Funds you win all the time or  SIP gives me more return than direct equity.

Wait��Definitely SIP may not give higher returns as happens in case of direct equity,  but certainly SIP will give returns and you will not lose money. Lets see how.  So my advice to you is that don�t play with your hard earned money because  though at the time of investing we accept the risk,  but it is upsetting to lose money when it actually happens.  This way  even SIP may not give us absolute highest return but as compared to the risk (we are taking through SIP) returns are good, provided you choose good Mutual Fund and your holding period is for the long-term.

So it is like if you want healthy investment then you must complete the full dose of SIP ( your entire tenure )  to reduce the symptoms of market  fluctuations.

Our in-house research at  Apnapaisa for Nifty reveals that if we have invested in Nifty through monthly SIP for 10 years at any time between January 1995 to November  2011, the  lowest return was 9.02% and for Mutual Fund the lowest return was 16.98%. So does it mean we can earn this much return? No, we may earn more return than that because for Nifty�s 10 year monthly SIP average is 17.97% and for Mutual Fund it is 27%.

We may earn such handsome returns in long-term provided that while choosing Mutual Fund we have taken professional advice and have got it reviewed by a professional. So what is the advantage of investing long term? Investment should be made for a longer tenure  only because we do not know index will move in which direction.  Every economy goes through its ups and downs and markets move accordingly, and it is not a short term phenomenon.  To overcome  such market movements,  our investment cycle should be long term.

This way like for our body�s fitness, regular exercise is important and not just exercising once in a while.  For youngsters,  heavy exercise instruments  like equity Mutual Funds may work well but for not so young yoga  like instruments say  Debt Mutual Funds, MIP and FMP are good.

Still if  you want to  invest through direct equity for higher returns then �Best of Luck� but  if you start investing through SIP then Party to banti hai dost!

The author is a research analyst at Apnapaisa.com. ApnaPaisa is India's leading price comparison site for financial products such as loans, credit cards and insurance plans. Author can be reached at www.facebook.com/apnapaisa

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

More cars earn top marks for safety

iihs top safety pick chrysler The 2015 Chrysler 200 was one of 33 models to earn a Top Safety Pick Plus award from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Despite stricter requirements and tough new crash tests more vehicles earned top marks from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.

This year, 71 vehicles earned the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety's Top Safety Pick awards compared to 39 last year.

That number includes vehicles winning the Institute's stringent Top Safety Pick Plus award, a feat managed by 33 vehicles this year, 11 more than last year. The Insurance Institute, a private group financed by auto insurers, puts vehicles through various crash tests to measure how well they protect occupants. These tests are different from those performed by the federal government's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

The Insurance Institute reports its crash test results on a four-step scale: Poor, Marginal, Acceptable and Good.

To qualify for the Top Safety Pick Award a vehicle must get at least an Acceptable rating in the Institute's challenging Small Overlap Crash test and a Good rating in the Institute's other tests. The other tests measure performance in front impacts, side impacts, rollover crashes and, for whiplash protection, in rear-end collisions.

The Small Overlap test was added to the regimen only in 2012. In it, the vehicle hits a barrier at 40 miles per hour with just one-quarter of its front bumper. The impact occurs on the left side, just in front of the driver's seat. This concentrates crash forces in a small area that's outside of the strong crash safety structures built into most new vehicles.

Minivans fail IIHS crash test   Minivans fail IIHS crash test

Some vehicles had to be significantly re-engineered to perform well in the Small Overlap test. For instance, the Toyota Prius v had originally been one of the worst performers in this test. Toyota made some changes to the car, including lengthening side curtain airbags, and the 2015 model year Prius v performed well.

To earn a Top Safety Pick Plus award a vehicle must meet Top Safety Pick requirements but must also have an automatic braking system to help prevent or at least reduce impacts. That's a tougher standar! d than the Institute used last year when a vehicle only had to have a front collision warning system. Automatic braking was not required then.

Consumer Reports' Most Reliable Cars

"Although forward collision warning on its own is a valuable feature, we decided to tighten our criteria to encourage manufacturers to offer autobrake," Insurance Institute president Adrian Lund said in a statement. "Systems that don't require a driver response to avoid or mitigate a cash have the most potential for reducing crashes."

Asian brands dominate these awards. Toyota (TM), including its Lexus and Scion brands, had the most vehicles -- 12 in all -- winning at least a Top Safety Pick Award. Honda (HMC), including its Acura luxury brand, had the second most award winners with a total or 10.

Monday, January 5, 2015

Baupost̢۪s Seth Klarman Buys Cheniere Energy, Ocwen Financial, Antero Resources, Sells Boyd Gaming, Theravance

Renowned value investor, hedge fund manager Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio) just reported his third quarter portfolio. Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio) buys Cheniere Energy Inc, Ocwen Financial Corp, Antero Resources Corp, Veritiv Corp, Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc, eBay Inc, PBF Energy Inc, Forward Pharma AS, PBF Energy Inc, Atara Biotherapeutics Inc, sells Boyd Gaming Corporation, Theravance Inc, Syneron Medical Ltd during the 3-months ended 09/30/2014, according to the most recent filings of his investment company, The Baupost Group. As of 09/30/2014, The Baupost Group owns 27 stocks with a total value of $5.7 billion. These are the details of the buys and sells.New Purchases: OCN, AR, VRTV, FWP, ATRA,Added Positions: LNG, KERX, EBAY, PBF, PBF,Reduced Positions: BYD, THRX, ELOS,For the details of Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio)'s stock buys and sells, go to http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Seth+KlarmanThis is the sector weightings of his portfolio:

Technology48.6%
Energy22.1%
Healthcare13.8%
Consumer Cyclical8.3%
Financial Services3.2%
Basic Materials1.2%
Consumer Defensive0.2%
These are the top 5 holdings of Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio)1. Micron Technology Inc (MU) - 51,655,434 shares, 30.8% of the total portfolio.2. Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG) - 11,199,030 shares, 15.6% of the total portfolio. Shares added by 87.03%3. Viasat Inc (VSAT) - 11,533,137 shares, 11.1% of the total portfolio.4. eBay Inc (EBAY) - 6,096,707 shares, 6.0% of the total portfolio. Shares added by 37.43%5. Theravance Inc (THRX) - 19,815,983 shares, 5.9% of the total portfolio. Shares reduced by 2.84%New Purchase: Ocwen Financial Corp (OCN)Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio) initiated holdings in Ocwen Financial Corp. His purchase prices were between $25.16 and $37.13, with an estimated average price of ! $29.99. The impact to his portfolio due to this purchase was 3.2%. His holdings were 7,001,700 shares as of 09/30/2014.New Purchase: Antero Resources Corp (AR)Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio) initiated holdings in Antero Resources Corp. His purchase prices were between $54.52 and $65.71, with an estimated average price of $57.97. The impact to his portfolio due to this purchase was 2.6%. His holdings were 2,759,510 shares as of 09/30/2014.New Purchase: Veritiv Corp (VRTV)Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio) initiated holdings in Veritiv Corp. His purchase prices were between $32.5 and $50.22, with an estimated average price of $42.42. The impact to his portfolio due to this purchase was 2.1%. His holdings were 2,362,885 shares as of 09/30/2014.New Purchase: Forward Pharma AS (FWP)Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio) initiated holdings in Forward Pharma AS. The impact to his portfolio due to this purchase was 2.03%. His holdings were 5,367,300 shares as of 09/30/2014.New Purchase: Atara Biotherapeutics Inc (ATRA)Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio) initiated holdings in Atara Biotherapeutics Inc. The impact to his portfolio due to this purchase was 1.07%. His holdings were 2,495,913 shares as of 09/30/2014.Added: Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG)Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio) added to his holdings in Cheniere Energy Inc by 87.03%. His purchase prices were between $70.2 and $84.46, with an estimated average price of $76.24. The impact to his portfolio due to this purchase was 7.26%. His holdings were 11,199,030 shares as of 09/30/2014.Added: Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc (KERX)Seth Klarman (Trades,

Sunday, January 4, 2015

How Sony and Disney Could Both Win Big With Spider-Man

Take heart, Spidey fans. Your favorite web-slinging superhero may still be in line to receive the proper big-screen treatment he deserves. In this case, that could be a huge catalyst for investors in both Sony (NYSE: SNE  ) and The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS  ) .

Despite the fact Disney acquired Marvel Entertainment for $4 billion in 2009, Sony still holds the film rights to Spider-Man. And it's no mystery Sony Pictures has made a bundle in its attempts to capitalize on those rights, generating nearly $4 billion in gross box office receipts from five separate films featuring the character since 2002.

Sony's predicament
Unfortunately, all is not well in Sony's neck of the woods. Despite estimates pegging The Amazing Spider-Man 2's production budget at an enormous $255 million, Sony's most recent effort received not only the franchise's worst critical response with a painful 53% "Fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but also the lowest worldwide box office gross of any Spider-Man film, at $709 million.

Most notably, last year's The Amazing Spider-Man 2 failed to capture the important hearts of domestic audiences; waning stateside interest in Spidey resulted in the addition of a modest $202.9 million to that total. It's unsettling that the largest box-office market in the world couldn't seem to care less about Sony's cinematic vision of this formerly bankable character:

(Hover over chart to see exact dollar figures), Data source: Box Office Mojo.

Following Sony's widely publicized hacking debacle, The Wall Street Journal's Speakeasy blog reported on leaked emails which revealed that executives from both Sony Pictures and Disney had been communicating as late as Oct. 30, 2014, regarding a number of mutually beneficial Spider-Man crossovers.

Most notably, the WSJ noted that Disney and Marvel had wanted to include Spider-Man in 2016's Captain America: Civil War -- which makes sense considering Spider-Man plays a key role in the corresponding Civil War narrative in the comics. But those talks broke down when Sony Pictures learned such a deal would involve granting complete creative control to Marvel -- and it wanted to essentially start from scratch with its own version of the web slinger.

According to a more recent report from Latino-Review, a source said the proposed deal previously on the table was a co-production agreement under which Marvel would assume creative control, and also finance 60% of the cost of future Spider-Man films, with Sony shouldering the remaining 40%.

This isn't over yet
Everything changed following the hack. Specifically, Latino-Review says, the higher-ups at Sony Pictures parent Sony Japan not only view their subordinates' handling of Spider-Man as "disappointing," but also want Sony Pictures to return to the negotiating table with Disney regardless of whether it involves giving up creative control.

And why not? There are literally dozens of superhero movies already planned during the next several years that pull from the vast character universes controlled by both Disney's Marvel and Time Warner's DC. It's not hard, then, to envision the moviegoing public continuing to sweep Sony's less-compelling Spider-Man universe under the rug in favor of Disney's and Time Warner's more-established, more-cohesive franchises. Disney, in particular, has arguably set an impossibly high standard with regard to confluent storylines, leaving Sony in the unenviable position of trying to keep pace.

In short, if Sony can't beat Disney, why not join forces and share in its success?

It seems doubtful Sony can make such a deal happen in time to include Spider-Man in Captain America: Civil War. We already know Marvel has Black Panther effectively filling Spidey's original role in the film, which should segue nicely into Black Panther's own planned late-2017 movie. 

With so many other Marvel movies already in the works, from Doctor Strange in late-2016 to Captain Marvel, Inhumans, and Avengers: Infinity War Part I in 2018, something tells me it wouldn't be too difficult for Disney to make room for a new Spider-Man somewhere in the mix. If that happens, it's hard to imagine any scenario in which it wouldn't have massive positive implications for the financial performance of whichever film Marvel chooses.